ShaoYang Victor Hydraulics Co.,Ltd (SZSE:301079) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 37% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 4.1% isn't as attractive.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 7.5x, considering almost half the companies in China's Machinery industry have P/S ratios below 2.8x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How Has ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd Performed Recently?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.How Is ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd's Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 7.4% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 26% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What Does ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?
ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on ShaoYang Victor HydraulicsLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.