Keysino Separation Technology Inc. (SZSE:300899) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 39% share price jump in the last month. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 13% in the last twelve months.
Since its price has surged higher, given around half the companies in China's Machinery industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.8x, you may consider Keysino Separation Technology as a stock to avoid entirely with its 11.8x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
How Keysino Separation Technology Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Keysino Separation Technology over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Keysino Separation Technology, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
Keysino Separation Technology's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.1%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 37% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Keysino Separation Technology's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What We Can Learn From Keysino Separation Technology's P/S?
The strong share price surge has lead to Keysino Separation Technology's P/S soaring as well. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Keysino Separation Technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Keysino Separation Technology (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.