Pa Shun International Holdings Limited (HKG:574) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 47% after a shaky period beforehand. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.
Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Pa Shun International Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Healthcare industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.1x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
What Does Pa Shun International Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?
For instance, Pa Shun International Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Pa Shun International Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Pa Shun International Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 21% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 64% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Pa Shun International Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Pa Shun International Holdings' P/S?
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Pa Shun International Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We find it unexpected that Pa Shun International Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Pa Shun International Holdings (at least 3 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If you're unsure about the strength of Pa Shun International Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.