展望后市，中指研究院认为，目前“银十”开局表现“超预期”，核心城市市场“回稳”态势明显，居民置业信心开始恢复，预计短期内新政将继续显效，同时假期认购数据的大幅回升也将逐步在网签数据中得以体现，10月市场销售数据或将出现明显增长。Mainland real estate stocks collectively pulled back yesterday, trading in the morning session today with gains. As of the time of writing, R&F Properties (02777) rose by 12.88% to HK$1.83; Shimao Group (00813) rose by 9.88% to HK$1.78; Agile Group (03383) rose by 9.52% to HK$1.15; Sunac (01918) rose by 8.55% to HK$2.54; CIFI Hold Gp (00884) rose by 5.75% to HK$0.46.
According to the Futu Securities app, mainland real estate stocks collectively pulled back yesterday and traded with gains in the morning session today. As of the time of writing, R&F Properties (02777) rose by 12.88% to HK$1.83; Shimao Group (00813) rose by 9.88% to HK$1.78; Agile Group (03383) rose by 9.52% to HK$1.15; Sunac (01918) rose by 8.55% to HK$2.54; CIFI Hold Gp (00884) rose by 5.75% to HK$0.46.
The latest data from Zhongzhi Research Institute shows that most cities surveyed have new property projects with average subscription levels during the National Day holiday exceeding the full month of September. Especially in first-tier cities, under the impetus of policy optimization, project visits and subscription levels have significantly increased, with greater performance in Guangzhou and Shenzhen compared to Beijing and Shanghai. Guangzhou and Shenzhen monitoring projects averaged twice the subscription levels of September, exceeding the full month subscription levels in Beijing and Shanghai.
Looking ahead, Zhongzhi Research Institute believes that the current performance of the 'Silver Ten' at the beginning of the month has exceeded expectations, indicating a clear trend of market stabilization in core cities. Residential purchasing confidence is starting to recover, and it is expected that new policies will continue to take effect in the short term. The significant rebound in holiday subscription data is also expected to gradually be reflected in transaction data, with a significant increase in market sales expected in October.
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that three days after the September Political Bureau meeting, the People's Bank of China implemented various real estate financial support policies. Adjustments to housing purchase restrictions, reduction in transaction taxes, and lower down payment ratios were promptly implemented in first-tier cities. This demonstrates the urgency of achieving the goal of stabilizing the real estate market. Starting from first-tier cities, there is a possibility of achieving a halt to the decline in house prices within the year. If this round of policies fails to fully achieve the goal of stopping the decline, there is still ample potential space for policy adjustments.
