银河期货指出，考虑10-11月运力仍处高位叠加需求下滑预期之下供需格局预计将进一步走向宽松，当前运价水平下船司利润依然较好，预计短期现货仍延续跌势。建信期货认为，国庆假期之后，在欧线需求淡季的情况下，航司运力供给回升，若货量的供给无法匹配充足的运力，运价跌势将持续。Shipping stocks continued to decline. As of the time of publication, Cosco Ship Engy (01138) fell by 5.51%, closing at HK$9.09; Pacific Basin (02343) fell by 4.66%, closing at HK$2.25; Cosco Shipping Holdings (01919) fell by 4.23%, closing at HK$11.78.
According to the China Fortune Financial APP, shipping stocks continued to decline. As of the time of publication, Cosco Ship Engy (01138) fell by 5.51%, closing at HK$9.09; Pacific Basin (02343) fell by 4.66%, closing at HK$2.25; Cosco Shipping Holdings (01919) fell by 4.23%, closing at HK$11.78; OOIL (00316) fell by 3.2%, closing at HK$103.
On the news front, the main contract of the European line of container shipping continued to decline this morning after a nearly 20% plunge yesterday, dropping by more than 10% at one point during trading, hitting a low of 1816 points, a cumulative decline of over 60% from the peak in July. In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's WEEK43 weekly quote has dropped to $2600/FEU. In addition, according to the latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of October 7, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (Europe route) closed at 2662.75 points, down 15.9% from the previous period.
Galaxy Futures points out that considering the high level of capacity in October and November combined with the expected decline in demand, the supply-demand pattern is expected to further shift towards a looser situation. Despite the current freight rate levels, shipping companies are still profitable, and short-term spot rates are expected to continue to decline. Cinda Futures believes that after the National Day holiday, with the weaker demand season on the European route, airline capacity supply will increase. If cargo supply cannot match sufficient capacity, the downward trend in freight rates will persist.
