2019年以来，公司营业收入有所波动，由856.89亿港元逐渐增长到2023年的971.69亿港元，期间CAGR约为0.4%。2023年，公司实现归母净利润66.55亿港元，同比增长620.2%，主要因为2022年澳洲业务因发电量短缺而无法应对的远期销售合约在批发电价创历史新高的环境下所产生的结算成本，使能源业务受到严重不良影响，而2023年远期电价放缓且价外能源合约陆续到期，使得利润显著修复。Haitong Int'l released a research report stating that it initiated coverage on CLP Holdings (00002) with a target price of HKD 73.55, and a rating of "outperform the market". Based on the DCF valuation model, the bank expects the company's revenue to be HKD 90.266/93.867/98.531 billion for 2024-2026, and the net income attributable to shareholders to be 6.941/7.338/7.563 billion HKD.
Haitong International's main viewpoints are as follows:
The company's profit significantly recovered in 2023.
Since 2019, the company's revenue has fluctuated, growing from 85.689 billion HKD to 97.169 billion HKD in 2023, with a CAGR of about 0.4% during this period. In 2023, the company achieved a net income of 6.655 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 620.2%. The significant recovery in profit was mainly due to the settlement costs incurred in response to forward sales contracts from 2022 in Australia, under the environment of historically high wholesale electricity prices, which severely impacted the energy business. In 2023, the slowing of forward electricity prices and the gradual expiration of off-market energy contracts led to a significant profit recovery.
The Hong Kong region contributes 60% of the company's revenue and 76% of operating profit.
The company's revenue mainly comes from Hong Kong and Australia, accounting for 60% and 38% respectively in 2023. In 2023, the operating profit before fair value adjustments was 10.127 billion HKD, with 76% from Hong Kong, 18% from mainland China; by business segment, the profit distribution for power transmission distribution and retailing/coal and gas/nuclear energy/renewable energy is 53%/22%/16%/9%.
The company maintains a stable dividend payout and relatively robust asset-liability level.
The company as a Hong Kong utility stock maintains a stable dividend payout record, with annual dividends staying at 3.1 HKD in recent years. The dividend yield for 2023 was 4.81%, with the company's asset liability ratio remaining around 51%, with minimal fluctuations, indicating good debt repayment ability and financial stability. On May 13th this year, the company announced a dividend of 0.63 HKD per share for the first interim dividend of 2024, the same as in 2023, with earnings per share meeting expectations.
Hong Kong's electricity demand is expected to continue to grow, with the potential for renewable energy installations in mainland China, Australia, and India to increase.
The company expects the number of public housing units planned to be built within the power supply range of CLP Holdings to increase by 50% over the next five years. In addition, Hong Kong has the potential to become a hub for regional data centers, with the company aiming to connect and provide power to up to 18 large data centers by 2028. In 2024, Energy
Australia's newly constructed 320MW Tallawarra B gas-fired power plant has been commissioned, with plans to increase the number of renewable energy projects under development or in operation to up to 3,000MW by the end of 2030. Apraava
Energy not only successfully bid for new wind, solar, and transmission projects but also successfully entered the emerging smart metering and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) industry.
Risk warning:
1. Exchange rate fluctuation risk; 2. Dividends lower than expected; 3. Risks of changes in regulatory environment.
