中金指，从今年4月以来持续看多寿险投资机会，最初的逻辑是市场高估了资产负债匹配程度较高的优质公司的利率风险，这些公司即便不考虑股票投资的增厚，核心盈利趋势有望长期稳中向上；当前中金认为优质寿险估值并未达到合理水平、仍有修复空间、未来股价或将波动向上，但由于近期情绪的快速释放或许需要较为谨慎地对待潜在波动，建议提防股票高收益预期炒作结束后的回调风险。Mainland insurance companies continue to decline. As of the time of publication, china life insurance (02628) fell by 6.77%, to HK$15.16; picc p&C (02328) fell by 7.11%, to HK$11.5; china pacific insurance (02601) fell by 6.43%, to HK$26.2; new china life insurance (01336) fell by 3.39%, to HK$25.65.
According to the Securities Times app, mainland insurance companies continue to decline. As of the time of publication, china life insurance (02628) fell by 6.77%, to HK$15.16; picc p&C (02328) fell by 7.11%, to HK$11.5; china pacific insurance (02601) fell by 6.43%, to HK$26.2; new china life insurance (01336) fell by 3.39%, to HK$25.65.
CICC stated in a report that the recent rapid rise in the insurance sector relies too much on stock return expectations that are difficult to sustain in the long term. The recent rapid rise in the insurance sector is believed to rely too heavily on stock returns from the asset side. While this logic has some merit, it is important to note that stock investment returns fluctuate significantly between different years. It cannot be simply extrapolated from the stock investment returns since the third quarter of this year to predict long-term profitability. The current market has high expectations for insurance companies' stock investment returns, believing that there may be limited room for further outperformance in the short term.
CICC has been bullish on life insurance investment opportunities since April this year. The initial logic was that the market overestimated the interest rate risk of high-quality companies with a high degree of asset-liability matching. These companies, even without considering the enhancement of stock investments, are expected to have a long-term stable and upward core profitability trend; currently, CICC believes that the valuation of high-quality life insurance companies has not reached a reasonable level, still has room for improvement, and future stock prices may fluctuate upwards. However, due to the rapid release of recent emotions, it may be necessary to handle potential fluctuations more cautiously and guard against the risk of a pullback after the speculative period of high stock return expectations ends.
