值得注意的是，富瑞指出，内地在上月底公布的刺激措施令人惊喜。该行相信，此轮量化宽松是可持续的，并有助扭转需求。大部分商品在旺季来临前都有良好的去库存情况，预期第四季的需求同比将有所改善，因为第四季的基数较低，例如水泥。该行第四季最看好是水泥，因为看到更多令人信服的证据，显示供应的限制会导致更可持续的价格上升。Cement stocks had the highest decline. As of press release, China Building Materials (03323) fell 11.28% to HK$2.91; Conch Cement (00914) fell 9.57% to HK$20.8; China Resources Building Materials Technology (01313) fell 7.07% to HK$1.84; and Asia Cement (00743) fell 6.72% to HK$2.5.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that cement stocks had the highest decline. As of press release, China Building Materials (03323) fell 11.28% to HK$2.91; Conch Cement (00914) fell 9.57% to HK$20.8; China Resources Building Materials Technology (01313) fell 7.07% to HK$1.84; and Asia Cement (00743) fell 6.72% to HK$2.5.
Dongwu Securities pointed out that since the market is about to enter the final demand period in the fourth quarter, and cement prices in most regions are still at a low level, companies operate at a loss. In order to turn losses into profits, under the leadership of leading companies, the market has once again begun to rise sharply in many places. In view of the relatively weak demand in the downstream market, although production is supported by erroneous peaks, considering that the price increase is also large, it is expected that it will be difficult to implement everything in the short term, and late-stage enterprises may adopt a continuous upward strategy to push prices up. The bank pointed out that the entire cement industry's loss-making situation is expected to continue to strengthen supply-side control.
Notably, Jefferies pointed out that the stimulus measures announced by the mainland at the end of last month were a surprise. The bank believes this round of quantitative easing is sustainable and will help reverse demand. Most products had a good inventory removal situation before the peak season, and demand in the fourth quarter is expected to improve year over year due to a lower base in the fourth quarter, such as cement. The bank is most optimistic about cement in the fourth quarter, as it sees more compelling evidence that supply restrictions will lead to more sustainable price increases.
