从区域上看，假期期间东北、陕西、河北等区域的价格明显强于全国其他区域，较假期前略有上涨，而这些省份也大多是二育大省。其背后或反映出自8月中下旬以来的二育阶段性集中出栏的过程已经接近尾声，二育存栏量或也已经降至相对低位。并且随着猪价的走低和二育栏舍的充足，二育进场的积极性或许也有明显的提升。标肥价差方面，10月7日的175kg大猪较标猪价差为0.69元/kg，较假期前的0.50元/kg显著扩大，其背后或主要反映出气温下降带来的大肥消费增加，以及前期二育集中出栏导致的肥猪相对紧缺。The benchmark supply of hogs depends on the sows and production efficiency, and November and December of 2023 and January of 2024 are the fastest stages for clearing production capacity. The sow numbers also drop to relatively low levels during the same period, which is also the period with the most severe winter diseases, corresponding to the insufficient benchmark supply in October.
According to the financial app 'Wisdom Finance', Haitong Securities published a research report stating that pork prices fluctuated during the National Day holiday, with a significant increase in prices for fat pigs and improved enthusiasm for second-grade pigs. This is mainly due to the increase in consumption of fat pigs brought about by the decrease in temperature, and the relative shortage of fat pigs caused by the concentration of second-grade pigs in the previous period.
During the holiday, pork prices first fell and then rose, with a significant increase in the price difference between fat and standard pigs, and increased enthusiasm for second-grade pigs. According to the data from Yongyi, pork prices strengthened slightly before and at the beginning of the National Day holiday. However, after October 2, pork prices noticeably weakened, with a cumulative maximum drop of 0.59 yuan/kg by October 4, and the national average price of live pigs only at 17.22 yuan/kg.
Regionally, during the holiday, prices in the Northeast, Shaanxi, Hebei, and other regions were significantly stronger than in other regions of the country, slightly increasing from before the holiday. These provinces are also mostly major areas for second-grade pigs. This may reflect that the process of concentrated slaughtering of second-grade pigs since the middle and late August has neared completion, and the inventory of second-grade pigs may have decreased to relatively low levels.
Pork prices are expected to begin a new round of increases, focusing on the hog farming sector. The benchmark supply of hogs depends on the sows and production efficiency, and November and December of 2023 and January of 2024 are the fastest stages for clearing production capacity. The sow numbers also drop to relatively low levels during the same period, which is also the period with the most severe winter diseases, corresponding to the insufficient benchmark supply in October. With the increasing demand for fat pigs and the relative shortage of supply, as the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs rises again in the future, the enthusiasm for second-grade pigs and the behavior of increasing weights in confined feeding operations are expected to increase, supporting the start of a new round of price increases. It is recommended to focus on the hog farming sector and specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Bornio, Tecon Biology, and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products.
The aquaculture industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity, with a focus on Guangdong Haid Group. The supply and demand situation for aquatic products has improved this year, with overall aquatic prices better than last year. This prosperity is expected to continue into the next year. The increase in prices is also likely to drive an increase in seedling purchases, benefiting aquatic feed sales. It is recommended to focus on Guangdong Haid Group.
The performance of the pet food operation is outstanding. Regarding overseas sales, overseas demand is stable and improving, leading to steady growth in related company performance. On the domestic sales front, related companies are actively improving the supply chain, strengthening brand building, and rapidly developing their own brands. It is recommended to focus on Guai Bao Pets, Yantai China Pet Foods, and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology.
The rubber supply and demand situation has improved. On the supply side, due to the weather conditions since the beginning of the year, the production in major rubber-producing regions worldwide has declined; the European EUDR policy has been implemented, and products that do not meet environmental protection requirements cannot enter Europe. On the demand side, strong demand for replenishing stocks in Europe and the United States has driven overall demand growth. Rubber prices are expected to continue to rise. Pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group.
The stock market surges, what should you invest in agriculture? 1) Hog farming. Pig prices are still on the rise, and the peak is worth looking forward to. Pay attention to cost-effective companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH).
2) Aquatic products fodder. The main aquatic product prices are recovering, and the aquatic products fodder industry will gradually benefit. It is recommended to focus on Guangdong Haid Group (002311.SZ).
3) Pet food. Outstanding business performance, recommend focusing on Guai Bao Pet (301449.SZ), Yantai China Pet Foods (002891.SZ), PetPal Pet Nutrition Technology (300673.SZ).
4) Rubber. Rubber prices are expected to continue to rise, pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group (601118.SH).
Risk warning: Significant deviations in demand from expectations, significant policy progress falling short of expectations, unexpected outbreaks in the industry.
