As the tesla Robotaxi Day event on October 10 approaches, global attention is once again focused on the latest technological developments of this electric car giant. Musk previously stated it as "will go down in history" or be "the largest event in the company's history".

On October 7, Bernstein analysts A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. and Daniel Zhu released a report predicting that tesla will demonstrate dedicated robot taxis and ride-hailing apps at Robotaxi Day, providing the latest updates on FSD 12.5 progress and roadmap, and announce robot taxi trials in one or more cities.

At the same time, Tesla may also provide more details on its new "Model 2.5" and provide updates on its Optimus robot. However, it is less likely to provide latest information on its low-cost Model 2 or updates on its Tesla Semi.

Bernstein believes that Tesla's Robotaxi Day is significant, but given the company's "overly optimistic" history, especially Musk admitting being "overly optimistic about FSD (Full Self-Driving technology) development", these projects may still have significant issues in detail. Therefore, Bernstein analysts have listed ten key questions.

1. Showcase the robot taxi Cybercab

The robot taxi is the highlight of this Robotaxi Day.

Initially, on April 5, Tesla announced the "We, Robot" event and Musk suddenly posted on X to announce that "Tesla robot taxis will be launched on August 8". However, apart from this, tesla has not announced any other news.

Bernstein expects the company to showcase its Robotaxi prototype designed for self-driving on October 10, codenamed "Cybercab". In fact, as early as this year, Tesla proposed a concept for a small two-seater car, which is teardrop-shaped and has no steering wheel.

It is reported that its test vehicles have already been tested in Los Angeles. Although they are well disguised, their shapes seem to meet people's expectations for two-door cars.

2. Demonstrate the specially designed "ride-hailing app".

Previously, Tesla has showcased a model of its robot taxi hailing app, named "Fleet Management Solution", which includes functions such as calling cars and estimating wait times. Vehicle owners can also add or remove private cars, resembling a combination of Airbnb and Uber.

Bernstein believes that Tesla may demonstrate this app and these functions:

"Including calling and riding siasun robot&automation taxis (and possibly other Tesla vehicles) on-site at the event - Tesla has reportedly mapped detailed routes for the event.

3. Updates on the progress and roadmap of fully autonomous driving (FSD).

Bernstein points out that Level 4 autonomous driving is a clear prerequisite for true robot taxi services, while the FSD service currently provided by Tesla remains at Level 2+.

Currently, the industry generally adopts the classification standards for autonomous driving systems released by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) in the USA, which have a total of 6 levels from L0 to L5. Level 0 means the vehicle is completely non-automated, while level 5 means the vehicle achieves full autonomous driving. Currently, the majority of vehicles with autonomous driving capabilities are at level L2.

Tesla previously stated that it has accelerated the progress of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities:

"Based on the current trends, it seems that we should be able to increase the mileage between two human interventions to a high enough level, far beyond that of humans, to potentially achieve unsupervised self-driving before the end of this year."

The company also stated that it has established an FSD release roadmap, which includes the launch of FSD v13 in October, mentioning that "the mileage required for intervention has increased by approximately 6 times".

Therefore, Bernstein believes:

"Tesla may provide updates on the progress of FSD, which may include an updated roadmap, the release of FSD v13, and the launch of FSD in China."

4. Regulatory approval challenges, most likely will result in self-driving tests being conducted in Texas.

Bernstein pointed out in the report that Tesla lags behind its competitors in regulatory approvals. Currently, the company has not conducted self-driving tests, while Waymo, owned by Google, has been doing so since 2017.

However, some jurisdictions have relatively fewer initial obstacles in self-certification and starting self-driving tests (although there are stricter requirements for the actual deployment of commercial robot taxis), including Texas, where Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox are operating or planning to operate robotic taxis in Austin.

It is worth noting that Austin is also where Tesla's headquarters are located. Therefore, analysts believe that Tesla is very likely to announce self-driving tests in one or more cities, most likely in Texas, but also possibly elsewhere.

5. See more details of the new models

During the first-quarter conference call this year, Tesla announced plans to launch a new model by the end of 2024 or early 2025, later changing to the first half of 2025 during the second-quarter call.

At the same time, Tesla has scaled back its ambitions, stating that the new models will not be built using revolutionary next-generation manufacturing processes but will be based on Tesla's existing production lines more like a 'Model 2.5'.

Tesla also showcased outlines of three new models at its shareholder meeting, one of which could be the Cybercab, with the other two possibly being a van and a sedan. Analysts believe that Tesla is unlikely to begin production by the end of the year and may not ramp up production until the end of 2025. However, analysts also state:

"We believe Tesla may announce or provide more details about the upcoming Model 2.5 at the event on October 10th."

6. Update on Optimus' Progress

Elon Musk previously stated that Tesla's long-term future revolves around Optimus Prime humanoid robot:

"I believe the long-term value of Optimus will exceed the sum of all other Tesla products."

However, in reality, since the release of Optimus in 2022, the company has provided almost no relevant progress updates. Nevertheless, Bernstein still believes that Tesla may have already updated the progress of Optimus, with the caption "We, Robot" possibly hinting at Tesla's plans to include such updates in this event.

7. Unlikely to disclose latest production process news

At the investor day in March last year, the focus was on Tesla's next-generation platform manufacturing process. It is reported that this platform will adopt a completely new process to significantly reduce costs by 50% and drive Tesla to achieve the goal of 20 million vehicles per year.

Regarding this event, Bernstein believes that, given rumors that the Cybercab will be based on a box assembly process, but Tesla has not shared detailed information about Model 2.5, with plans for this model to start production within the next 8 months. Therefore, Tesla may focus on its recent new product releases and delay the disclosure of details about Model 2.

In China, there are experiments with renting out siasun robot&automation taxis.

There are many key participants in the siasun robot&automation taxi field in China, including baidu's Apollo, Pony.AI, WeRide, AutoX, and didi global inc.

Additionally, given that tesla has not even been approved to launch an L2 solution like FSD. Bernstein believes that the company may need to first launch FSD in China before starting experiments with siasun robot&automation taxis.

The update status of Tesla Semi is still uncertain.

After seeing what appears to be a roof LiDAR sensor kit equipped on the Tesla Semi (Tesla's electric semi-truck), discussions about Tesla Semi have become active again in the blogosphere, leading to speculation that this event may involve updates to Tesla Semi.

However, Bernstein noted that Tesla Semi is still mostly in the testing phase and will not be mass-produced until March 2026. Therefore, analysts remain cautious about whether Tesla will make significant updates to Semi.

Other questions that investors should consider.

Does tesla believe that its pure camera system can replicate or surpass the safety record of existing lidar and radar systems? Does it consider lidar necessary for FSD?

Will the FSD 12.5 and future software versions be backward compatible with all installed Tesla baselines, and when can this be achieved? Can all Tesla owners be assured that their hardware will be able to run the latest FSD versions in the future?

Why hasn't Tesla disclosed details of accidents and human interventions to regulatory agencies? Does it plan to do so, and if yes, when will this be done?

What are the timeframes and processes for regulatory approval of autonomous taxis (with and without human intervention) in the U.S. and outside the U.S.?

To what extent will Tesla centrally monitor its autonomous taxi service? (For example, how many vehicles will each supervisor be responsible for?) What happens if an accident occurs with the autonomous taxi that requires human intervention/control takeover?

Who will provide insurance for Tesla and third-party autonomous taxi services? Who will provide insurance for Tesla owners to onboard their vehicles into the Tesla autonomous taxi network?

How will Tesla achieve scalability in its potential autonomous taxi service? Is Tesla considering partnerships with ride-hailing services? Why? Would Tesla consider acquiring existing ride-hailing networks (such as Lyft)?

What cost advantages could Tesla's autonomous taxi service have compared to current ride-hailing services and Waymo's service?

Will existing Tesla models first have autonomous taxi functionality, or will the initial batch of autonomous taxis be specifically released products by Tesla? Why?

In the next five years, how many commercial self-driving taxi services will there be? And how many companies will obtain L5 self-driving permits?

In addition, Bernstein also pointed out in the report that Tesla may find it difficult to win and achieve sustained excess profits in FSD/Robotaxi.

Analysts believe that due to technological and regulatory reasons, it is still uncertain whether Tesla can surpass the current L4 self-driving taxi operators; furthermore, even if Tesla can be the first to achieve L5, its followers may also launch competitive products, thus weakening Tesla's chances of making excess profits; at the same time, before the low-cost Model 2 is put into production (possibly by 2027), Tesla's core automotive business will face limited growth and profit margin expansion.

Furthermore, Bernstein has given Tesla a rating of "underperform" with a target price of $120. Analysts believe that:

"The value of Tesla's automotive business may be less than $200 billion, which means the company's valuation includes about $600 billion in value from other businesses, possibly Robotaxi and humanoid robots."