The stock market is pulling back, with long-term bond bullish sentiment being released, yields significantly down, but the short end may be affected by precautionary redemptions, with political and financial bonds within 2 years seeing a sharp increase.
Caixin News October 9th (Reporter Liu Chen) The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance jointly held their first official meeting, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference this Saturday, with Minister of Finance Liao Guoan in attendance. Bond market sentiment has improved, with the 30-year government bond futures main contract closing up 0.81%. Specifically:
Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.81%, the 10-year main contract up 0.2%, the 5-year main contract up 0.06%, and the 2-year main contract slightly down 0.01%.
Most interbank major interest rates bonds saw yields decline. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year government bond (240011) fell by 2.5 basis points to 2.165%, the yield of the active 30-year government bond (2400001) fell by 4.25 basis points to 2.34%, and the yield of the active 10-year policy bank bond (240210) fell by 3.3 basis points to 2.257%.
(Data source: QB, compiled by Caixin)
"Macro Fly Bond" account owner Wang Hongfei told Caixin News that today the bond market showed differentiation, with short-term bond yields rising and medium-to-long-term bond yields falling, all due to the stock market. Since late September, the stock market has rebounded significantly from its lows, attracting customers to redeem funds and wealth management products for stock market investment. The pressure from fund and wealth management redemption soared, resulting in passive selling of short-term bonds. Yields of CDs, short-term interest rate bonds, and credit bonds all increased significantly. Today, the stock market corrected noticeably and, coupled with the joint meeting of the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance, emphasized creating a favorable environment for bond issuance through government bond trading, providing a boost to the bond market. The long bond sentiment was released, leading to a clear decline in yields. In the short term, it is expected the bond market will remain volatile, with attention needed on the sustainability of stock market gains, fund and wealth management redemption situations, and the intensity of fiscal policies on Saturday. Currently, for bank and insurance allocations, there is significant value in long bond allocation, and it is recommended to increase allocation; for medium-to-long-term trend trading, positions can be gradually built on rallies; for swing trading, it is recommended to adhere to a right-side thinking, waiting for the slowing of fund redemptions and clarity on fiscal policies before taking action.
In terms of open market operations, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain reasonable and ample liquidity in the banking system, on October 9th, it conducted a 61 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation through fixed-rate and quantity bidding, with an operation rate of 1.50%. Wind data shows that 196.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase matured on the same day.
On the funding side, most Shibor short-term varieties rose. The overnight variety rose by 10.9 basis points to 1.618%; the 7-day variety rose by 10.6 basis points to 1.803%; the 14-day variety rose by 2.3 basis points to 1.923%; the 1-month variety remained flat at 1.82%.
The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance joint working group held its first formal meeting, fully affirming the close cooperation between the two parties in the trading of central bank bonds in the past, establishing the working group operating mechanism, and exchanging views on the operation of the bond market. Both sides agreed that trading central bank bonds enriches the toolbox of monetary policy, strengthens liquidity management as an important means. Next step is to coordinate development and security, continue to strengthen policy coordination, continuously optimize relevant institutional arrangements, maintain the stable development of the bond market in regulation, and provide a suitable market environment for trading central bank bonds.
The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 on October 12 (Saturday) to introduce the relevant situation of "increasing the intensity of fiscal policy countercyclical adjustment, and promoting high-quality economic development" by Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an, and answer questions from reporters.
Interbank repo benchmark interest rates collectively rose. FR001 reported 1.8000%, up 17.00 basis points; FR007 reported 2.0500%, up 15.00 basis points; FR014 reported 2.0000%, up 15.00 basis points.
Interbank repo benchmark interest rates between different banks collectively rose. FDR001 reported 1.6500%, up 13.00 basis points; FDR007 reported 1.8500%, up 10.00 basis points; FDR014 reported 1.9000%, up 10.00 basis points.
Primary market situation:
The bond market of the exchange closed, with mixed performance in real estate bonds.
According to Choice data statistics, today the exchange market's top five decliners for non-gold credit bonds are: PR Xunkai 0.01, 0.22 million Ke 04, PR Mile 0.01, 0.22 million Ke 06, 24 Guangda 02. Details as follows:
According to Choice data statistics, today the exchange market's top five gainers for non-gold credit bonds are: H9 Longkong 01, H8 Longkong 05, 23 Xingxin 03, 22 Longhu 04, 23 Kaifeng 04. Details as follows:
Interbank repo rates are rising across the board, as follows:
(Data Source: Wind, compiled by Caixin)
Regarding deposits, today the 3m period national government bonds are in the range of 1.85%-1.93% with good demand, up 13bp from the previous day. The 1-year period national government bonds are reported at 1.99%-2.12%, up 1.5bp from the previous day. For AAA-rated deposits, the 9m transaction is at 2.048%, and the 1-year transaction is at 2.03%.
(Data Source: Choice, compiled by Caixin)