On October 9th, the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" (Editor: Song Ziqiao) reported that on Thursday, October 10th at 7:00 pm local time (10:00 am Beijing time on October 11th), Tesla will hold the "Robotaxi Day" event at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California, with the theme slogan "We, Robot".

This studio has produced many well-known film and television works. productions such as "Batman", "Friends", "The Big Bang Theory", "Harry Potter" have all been set here. As a controlled enclosed environment, these large sound stages resemble real life (some scenes are like suburbs or even simulate small downtown areas), undoubtedly making it an excellent venue for Tesla to showcase its autonomous driving technology.

Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California, USA.

Currently, Tesla has already issued formal tickets to invitees. The ticket recipients include Tesla shareholders and media representatives, among others. Tesla has specially set up a lottery for shareholders, where shareholders only need to prove they hold Tesla stock until July 31, 2024, to participate in the draw. Winners will have the opportunity to attend the conference in person.

Musk has always referred to Tesla not just as an electric car company but as an AI robot company. This event is seen as Tesla's Robotaxi debut, and the new generation of Tesla robots "Optimus Gen3" and the consumer model, referred to as Model 2 by the outside world, are expected to make an appearance together.

The "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" has compiled information from multiple media sources, and the following is a collection of unofficial predictions for the conference -

Robotaxi

Tesla will launch a brand new model specifically designed for autonomous driving, instead of using existing or modified Tesla cars for the taxi business. Musk temporarily named the Robotaxi model as "Cybercab". The prefix "Cyber" seems to confirm the design concept revealed in Walter Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk - a compact, two-door, two-seat model similar to the Cybertruck, with sharp edges and stainless steel finish.

Image Source: Biography of Elon Musk written by Walter Isaacson

Additionally, Cybercab may not be equipped with a steering wheel and pedals (this design does not comply with US federal automotive safety standards), fully relying on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software; the manufacturing cost per vehicle will be very low, and the cost per ride may be similar to bus fares; it will be produced at the Texas Gigafactory and will adopt a new "boxless" manufacturing strategy (handling different parts of the car separately, only assembling them in the final stage, aiming to reduce costs and factory footprint), with plans for mass production in 2024; Tesla will allow owners to make money by putting their Cybercab on ride-hailing networks as taxis, Musk referred to it as a combination of "Airbnb and Uber".

TechCrunch reports that Tesla will also showcase the ride-hailing application revealed in the first quarter earnings call in April. In order to drive the commercialization process of Robotaxi, Tesla may announce a partnership with Uber, but it is not expected that Tesla will provide a clear commercialization path at that time.

Furthermore, Tesla may collaborate with McDonald's to utilize Robotaxi for food delivery. The basis for this is a post from McDonald's last week stating, "The chat will start on 10.10." Musk responded with a crying laughing emoji.

According to Bloomberg, to control Tesla's costs, Musk has decided to avoid sensors other than cameras. He may develop the first generation Cybercab on the existing platforms running Model 3 and Model Y.

Siasun Robot&Automation

Musk is a science fiction enthusiast, and the slogan "We, Robot" is a tribute to the science fiction writer Isaac Asimov's collection of short stories "I, Robot". Asimov proposed the "Three Laws of Robotics" in the book, which prioritize human safety, and these laws have become the fundamental issue for future generations to explore the relationship between humans and machines.

Three Laws of Robotics: 1) A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm; 2) A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law; 3) A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

Optimus Gen2 was released in August 2023. Compared to the original Optimus, Optimus Gen2 has a more refined appearance, a 30% increase in walking speed, and a 10-kilogram weight reduction. The goal of Optimus Gen2 is to undertake some simple and tedious human tasks.

Optimus Gen3 may further advance in flexibility, lightweight design, and intelligence.

Elon Musk previously stated that the design of Optimus Gen3 will be completed later this year, "It will be a special version." The latest news indicates that the dexterous hand of the new generation Optimus will have 22 degrees of freedom, mainly distributed in the forearm, meaning it can perform delicate activities like playing the piano. Additionally, this robot has the ability to communicate and be personalized.

Analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley predicts that Optimus Gen3 will have a larger scale and a faster rate of popularity than Tesla's Robotaxi.

New vehicles: Model 2, Cybervan

Deepwater Asset Management predicts that Tesla will launch a new electric car priced at 0.025 million dollars, referred to by fans as Model 2. Analysts Gene Munster and Brian Baker stated that they expect Model 2 to have a similar look and feel to Cybercab, possibly based on Tesla's announcement that the two cars will share a common car platform.

The company also believes that Tesla will provide more details about Cybervan. Cybervan is a fully autonomous passenger and cargo vehicle that may be used in the public transportation sector in the future. This prediction is based on Tesla's investor demo in March 2023, showcasing Tesla's current and future models, including a trailer of the van model.

There are reports that Tesla will showcase its wireless electric car charging technology, and may also discuss Tesla's fully automated driving system, which is optional for regular Tesla cars.

Undoubtedly, Robotaxi is the focus of this event. According to Trade Alert's options data, the expected volatility of Tesla's stock price in the next 30 days is approaching the highest level in two years, mainly due to the uncertainty surrounding Robotaxi.

Both Tesla's Robotaxi and the new generation Optimus have long been talked about but not seen in action. Ahead of any concrete developments, several analysts and institutional investors have lowered their expectations.

Elliott Johnson, Chief Investment Officer of Evolve ETF, has been closely monitoring Tesla and stated: "They need to act because this matter has been discussed, rumored, talked about, and announced in various forms for a while." He expects that any announcements made on Thursday will not have a financial impact for one to two years.

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi stated in a research report: "We believe that Tesla's Robotaxi is focused on long-term goals, lacking immediate delivery results or incremental revenue drivers. The company's track record—especially in the FSD field—is overly optimistic, with significant issues in the details."

Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research, stated: "We believe this will still take several years, with many technological barriers, safety tests, and regulatory approvals still hindering the process." He emphasized, "The disconnect between the stock's high valuation and the reality of Tesla's profit growth bottleneck is becoming increasingly severe."