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下周降息稳了?欧洲央行多位决策者主张放松货币政策

Will the interest rate cut be stable next week? Several decision-makers at the European Central Bank advocate easing monetary policy.

cls.cn ·  Oct 9 09:20

①François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the French Central Bank, stated on Wednesday: 'It is very likely that interest rates will be lowered again next week, and it will not be the last time. The pace of rate cuts depends on how the fight against inflation evolves.' ②Other members of the European Central Bank Governing Council also provided reasons for the interest rate cut in October, including Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of the Bank of Latvia, and Carlos da Silva Costa, Governor of the Bank of Portugal.

On Wednesday, local time, several European Central Bank policymakers delivered speeches advocating a 25 basis points interest rate cut again next week. However, some officials are concerned that the turbulent situation in the Middle East may push up oil prices, leading to a resurgence in inflation.

In September, the European Central Bank implemented its second interest rate cut of the year, signaling a gradual normalization of its monetary policy. However, the Governing Council provided little clues about the next steps.

Currently, the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next week. Investors anticipate that given the weak economy and unexpectedly slow price growth, the ECB will accelerate the pace of monetary policy easing.

François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and also Governor of the Bank of France, stated on Wednesday: 'It is very likely that interest rates will be lowered again next week, and it will not be the last time. The pace of rate cuts depends on how the fight against inflation evolves.'

Yannis Stournaras, Governor of the Bank of Greece, claimed that he supports two more interest rate cuts this year, with further policy relaxation in 2025. 'Even if we reduce interest rates by 25 basis points now and again in December, the rates will only return to the level of 3%, still in a highly restrictive zone.'

In addition, other members of the European Central Bank Governing Council also provided reasons for the interest rate cut in October, including Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of the Bank of Latvia, and Carlos da Silva Costa, Governor of the Bank of Portugal. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, recently stated that policymakers in the Eurozone are becoming 'more optimistic' about controlling inflation, a sentiment that will be reflected in the next monetary policy meeting.

Furthermore, the Eurozone's economic data consistently falling below expectations is also a reason for policymakers calling for interest rate cuts. For most of the past year, the Eurozone economy has been stagnant, the labor market is weakening, wage growth has significantly slowed down, and more importantly, the speed of inflation decline is faster than the European Central Bank's expectations.

However, Pierre Wunsch, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, has not made a decision. He believes that due to weak economic growth, but with domestic inflation still too high, geopolitical tensions have pushed up energy costs.

Wunsch stated that he would like to see analysis from European Central Bank staff and asked whether any decisive factors indicate the need for another rate cut in October.

Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, is almost the only official clearly opposing a rate cut next week. On Wednesday, he said: "The media believes that lowering interest rates is a done deal. But what I want to say is, I am not entirely convinced that we should make decisions based solely on one data point showing good performance." He was referring to the inflation rate in September falling below the target of 2% for the first time since 2021.

Economists predict that by the end of this year, the European Central Bank's deposit rate will fall to 3%, and by the end of 2025, it will drop to 2%, reaching the level of the neutral interest rate that most people believe, which neither stimulates nor slows down economic growth.

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