We Think Amphenol (NYSE:APH) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Amphenol (NYSE:APH) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Amphenol Corporation (NYSE:APH) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
伯克希尔-哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录在谈到“最大的投资风险并非价格的波动,而是是否会遭受永久性的资本损失”时绝不讳言。因此,当你考虑任何特定股票的风险时,需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会拖垮一家公司。和许多其他公司一样,安诺电子公司(纽交所:APH)也在利用债务。但是这种债务是否会让股东担忧呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般而言,债务只有在公司无法轻松偿还债务,无论是通过筹集资金还是用其自己的现金流,时才成为一个真正的问题。资本主义的部分内容是“创造性破坏”过程,失败的企业被银行家无情地清算。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以菜价发行股票,永久性地稀释股东,以稳固其资产负债表。当然,债务可以是企业中的一个重要工具,特别是在资本密集型企业中。在我们审查债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is Amphenol's Debt?
安诺电子的债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Amphenol had debt of US$5.44b, up from US$4.32b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.30b, its net debt is less, at about US$4.14b.
下图显示,截至2024年6月,安诺电子的债务为54.4亿美元,较一年前的43.2亿美元增加。然而,由于其拥有13亿美元的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为41.4亿美元。
How Healthy Is Amphenol's Balance Sheet?
安诺电子的资产负债表状况如何?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Amphenol had liabilities of US$3.46b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.08b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.30b as well as receivables valued at US$2.86b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$5.38b.
我们可以从最近的资产负债表看出,安诺电子有短期到期的债务 34.6亿美元,长期债务 60.8亿美元。 抵消这些债务的是,它有 13亿美元的现金,以及在 12个月内到期的应收账款价值 28.6亿美元。 因此,它的负债超过了其现金和(短期)应收账款的总和 53.8亿美元。
Since publicly traded Amphenol shares are worth a very impressive total of US$75.7b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
由于上市公司安诺电子股票总值为 757亿美元,这种程度的负债似乎不太可能构成重大威胁。 但是,我们认为值得关注其资产负债表的实力,因为随着时间的推移,情况可能会发生变化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过将公司的净债务与其息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)相除,并计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何覆盖其利息费用(利息覆盖率)来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力。因此,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
Amphenol has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 17.4 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. The good news is that Amphenol has increased its EBIT by 9.2% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Amphenol's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
安诺电子的净债务与息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)比率仅为 1.3。 它的EBIT覆盖了其利息支出高达 17.4倍。 因此,我们对其超保守的债务使用感到非常放心。 好消息是,安诺电子在过去十二个月内将其EBIT增加了 9.2%,这应该消除人们对偿还债务的担忧。 无疑,我们大多数关于债务的信息来自资产负债表。 但未来的收益,而不是其他任何因素,将决定安诺电子维持健康资产负债表的能力。 因此,如果您关注未来,您可以查看这份分析师利润预测的免费报告。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Amphenol recorded free cash flow worth 72% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最后,一家公司只能用冰冷的现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。 因此,逻辑上的步骤是查看EBIT中实际自由现金流所占的比例。 在最近的三年中,安诺电子记录的自由现金流价值相当于其EBIT的 72%,这是正常水平,考虑到自由现金流不包括利息和税费。 这笔冰冷的现金意味着它可以在需要时减少债务。
Our View
我们的观点
Happily, Amphenol's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also supports that impression! Zooming out, Amphenol seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. After all, sensible leverage can boost returns on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Amphenol has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
令人欣喜的是,安诺电子令人印象深刻的利率期货表现意味着它在债务方面处于上风。而好消息并不止于此,因为它将EBIt转化为自由现金流的表现也支持这一印象!总体而言,安诺电子似乎相当合理地使用债务;我们对此表示认可。毕竟,明智的杠杆可以提高股本回报。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都在资产负债表中-相反。例如- 安诺电子有1个警告标志,我们认为您应该注意。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时候更容易集中精力关注根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费访问零净债务增长股票列表。
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