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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For OCI International Holdings Limited's (HKG:329) Shares After Tumbling 26%

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 10, 2024 06:12

OCI International Holdings Limited (HKG:329) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. Looking back over the past twelve months the stock has been a solid performer regardless, with a gain of 14%.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking OCI International Holdings is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 10.7x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Capital Markets industry have P/S ratios below 3.7x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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SEHK:329 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 9th 2024

What Does OCI International Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, OCI International Holdings has been doing very well. The P/S ratio is probably high because investors think this strong revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on OCI International Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as OCI International Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 36% gain to the company's top line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 52% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that OCI International Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate OCI International Holdings' very lofty P/S. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of OCI International Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for OCI International Holdings with six simple checks.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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