Is PetroChina (HKG:857) A Risky Investment?
Is PetroChina (HKG:857) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格背書的外部基金經理李錄明確表示:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動性,而是你是否會遭受到資本的永久損失。」 因此,當您考慮任何特定股票的風險性時,可能很明顯您需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務可能會拖垮一家公司。 重要的是,中國石油有限公司(HKG:857)確實存在債務。 但這些債務會不會讓股東擔心呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務是幫助企業成長的工具,但是如果企業不能償還貸款,那麼它存在於貸款人的掌握之中。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制公司。儘管這種情況不太常見,但我們經常看到因爲貸款人迫使企業以低於市場價格的價格籌集資本而導致負債累累的企業永久性地稀釋股東權益。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着廉價的資本,尤其是當它代替那些能以高回報率再投資的公司而發生稀釋時。當我們考慮到債務水平時,我們首先要考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is PetroChina's Debt?
中國石油的債務情況是什麼?
As you can see below, PetroChina had CN¥213.8b of debt at June 2024, down from CN¥302.5b a year prior. But it also has CN¥258.8b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥45.0b net cash.
正如下文所示,截至2024年6月,中國石油的債務爲2138億人民幣,低於前一年的3025億人民幣。 但它也有2588億人民幣的現金來抵消,意味着淨現金爲450億人民幣。
How Healthy Is PetroChina's Balance Sheet?
中石化的資產負債表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that PetroChina had liabilities of CN¥716.6b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥373.5b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥258.8b as well as receivables valued at CN¥90.1b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥741.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
詳細查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到中石化有7166億人民幣的短期內到期的負債,以及3735億人民幣的長期負債。 抵消這些義務的是,它有2588億人民幣的現金,以及901億人民幣的短期應收賬款。 因此,其負債總計7412億人民幣,超過了其現金和短期應收賬款的總和。
This deficit isn't so bad because PetroChina is worth a massive CN¥1.49t, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, PetroChina boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
這個赤字並不糟糕,因爲中石化價值巨大,達到了1.49萬億人民幣,因此如果有需要,可能會籌集足夠的資本來鞏固其資產負債表。 但我們絕對要注意是否有跡象表明其債務帶來了太多風險。 儘管其負債可觀,中石化擁有淨現金,因此可以說其負債並不重。
The good news is that PetroChina has increased its EBIT by 2.7% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if PetroChina can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
好消息是,中石化在過去十二個月裏的EBIt增長了2.7%,這應該能緩解有關償還債務的擔憂。 毫無疑問,我們大部分關於債務的了解來自資產負債表。 但最終,業務未來的盈利能力將決定中石化是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。 因此,如果您想知道專業人士的看法,您可能會發現分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While PetroChina has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, PetroChina produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 71% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最後,雖然稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但借款人只接受冰冷的現金流。 儘管中石化在資產負債表上擁有淨現金,但仍值得關注其將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其構建(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。 在過去三年中,中石化產生了堅實的自由現金流,相當於EBIt的71%,符合我們的預期。 這筆冰冷的現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。
Summing Up
總之
Although PetroChina's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥45.0b. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥162b, being 71% of its EBIT. So we don't have any problem with PetroChina's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that PetroChina is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
儘管中國石油的資產負債表並不特別強大,由於總負債,但明顯可以看到其有450億人民幣的淨現金。並且以1620億人民幣的自由現金流給我們留下了深刻印象,佔其EBIt的71%。因此,我們對中國石油使用債務沒有任何問題。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表之內 - 遠非如此。請注意,在我們的投資分析中,中國石油出現了兩個警示信號,其中之一不容忽視...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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