As of September 30, 2024, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 38,000 yuan/ton, 32,500 yuan/ton, and 33,500 yuan/ton respectively, up by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% from the end of August.

The price of R22 is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of August, and up by 53.85% from the beginning of 2024; the price difference is 21,168 yuan/ton, down by 0.34% from the end of August.

According to data from the industry online, from October to December 2024, China's household air conditioner production totaled 11.77 million units, 13.3077 million units, and 14.9071 million units respectively, all showing growth compared to the same period last year, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.95%, 24.00%, and 9.70% respectively. The production volume of household air conditioners and refrigerators has been relatively high in recent years, supporting the demand for refrigerants.

Due to the rapid increase in production capacity and the slowdown in demand growth, the prices of PTFE, PVDF, and HFP in China remained at low levels in 2024.

According to a research report published by Donghai Securities on the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, based on a letter from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the quota for second-generation refrigerants is acceleratingly reduced, while the total production and usage of the third-generation refrigerants remain at the baseline, the same as last year, with additional quota issued for R32.

Currently, R22, a second-generation refrigerant, is mainly used in the maintenance market, and the existing demand is relatively stable. The team believes that the reduction in R22 quota is expected to drive prices continuously upwards.

In terms of the third-generation refrigerant, driven by the demand for household air conditioners this year, the social inventory of R32 has decreased, and prices have risen rapidly. Although the domestic quota has been increased by 35,000 tons, it is currently not expected to have much impact on prices. Therefore, Donghai Securities believes that the increase in quotas in 2025 will not have a negative impact on the price of R32, and the prosperity of the third-generation refrigerants is expected to continue.

Leading refrigerant company:

Dongyue Group (00189): The subsidiary Dongyue Organosilicon Materials has reported a profit, and it is expected that the company's net profit for the first half of the year will be about RMB 62-68 million, a turnaround from a loss of RMB 192 million in the same period last year. This is mainly due to an increase in product output, sales volume and revenue, as well as a decrease in unit production costs and an increase in gross margin. Dongyue Group has the highest global production capacity for R22. In addition, Dongyue Group's refrigerant products include more than 10 varieties such as R32, R125, and R134a, and these varieties have all experienced varying degrees of price increases since the beginning of this year.