US stocks rose on Wednesday, while the crypto market fell.

The release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting in the early morning caused a sensation worldwide. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted suddenly, retreating from the 30-day line of 62k to the $0.06 million level.

The Federal Reserve's minutes for the September meeting showed diverging opinions on the magnitude of interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in US stocks and a fall in the crypto market. Some officials support a more substantial rate cut, while others believe that a 50 basis point cut is too large.

Market expectations for a rate cut in November have decreased, causing a general decline in the crypto market. Bitcoin's market share is at 56.7%. US stocks opened higher, maintained a rising trend at the close, and all three major indices, S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, rose. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.13 trillion, with BabyDoge leading the way and FTT experiencing the largest decline.

Following the release of the minutes, market observers lowered their expectations for a rate cut in November. The FedWatch tool at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows a 70.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with the probability of no rate cut rising to 29.6%.

The heat map shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.13 trillion, with Bitcoin holding a market share of 56.7%.

Altcoins experienced a general decline. Among the top 200 tokens by market cap, Baby Doge Coin (BabyDoge) led the gains with a 9% increase; SuperVerse rose by 5.2%; FTX Token (FTT) had the largest decline at 9.6%; cat in a dogs world (MEW) dropped by 8.8%; Mog Coin (MOG) declined by 8.7%.

In terms of US stocks, the stock market opened higher and maintained its gains at the close. At the close, the S&P index, Dow Jones index, and Nasdaq index all rose, increasing by 0.71%, 1.03%, and 0.60% respectively.

To be a market maker, you must have the mindset of a market maker, don't treat the Federal Reserve like a cadre.

In the deceitful financial game, you must believe in these three points:

First, the market maker must be very clear that they are market-making, but the market maker will definitely disguise themselves.

Second, the market makers you can think of must also be able to think of, and the market makers you can't think of can also be thought of.

Third, in the cruel game of life and death, conspiracy theories may not die, but naive and sweet characters will definitely die.

The upcoming October: suspense and opportunity coexist.

The impact of macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policies.

The minutes of the October Fed meeting, as well as the CPI and PPI data to be released on October 10th and 11th, will be key focal points for the market. These data will directly impact the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy.

If the inflation data is lower than market expectations, the market may be hopeful for future rate cuts, which could be bullish for high-risk assets including bitcoin. However, if the data exceeds expectations, market tension may pressure the price of bitcoin.

When will the bull market for cryptocurrencies start?

The timing of the start of the crypto bull market is still uncertain, but there are several key indicators and conditions that may signal the approach of a bull market.

Market and Economic Environment:

• According to a statement issued by Intel on Tuesday, the company will sell 49% of the entities related to its Irish Fab 34 chip factory. Intel will retain 51% of its stake, thereby retaining control of the company, and the transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024. This transaction will provide Intel with $11 billion in funding and provide more feasible space for its large-scale expansion plan.ML ClockIn the current cycle, the USA may be in a transition phase from a downturn to a recovery, which typically means that funds may flow from the bond market to higher-risk assets such as stocks and cryptos.

• The Fed's interest rate cut policy may also stimulate inflows into the crypto market.

Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics:

• The market cap and trading volume of stablecoins can serve as indicators of market activity. For example, the market cap of Tether (USDT) and USDC (USDC) continues to grow, indicating increasing market participation.

• The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart indicator shows that Bitcoin is currently in the green band "buy" range, indicating moderate market enthusiasm, but not overheated.

Despite the poor market conditions, I remain bullish on the future!

Overall, although the crypto market faces short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium to long term. We can anticipate that the current adjustment is more of a market cleansing action, aiming to clear short-term speculative funds and accumulate strength for the next round of growth.

End

Can October reproduce the glory of "Uptober"? In this bull market cycle, Bitcoin has experienced a roller coaster journey from the low point in October 2023 to the turbulence in October 2024. Currently, Bitcoin is once again at $60,500 facing not only the pressure of macroeconomic data but also a reevaluation of the market's long-term direction.ResistanceFrom a historical perspective, October is often Bitcoin's "Uptober", where the market always seems to find reasons to rise. However, this year's market is more cautious and observant. In this suspenseful October, investors may need to stay calm, closely monitor key data, and be prepared for possible market changes.

From the lows of October 2023 to the turbulence of October 2024, Bitcoin has experienced a volatile journey in this round of bull market. Currently, Bitcoin is once again standing at $60,500. Facing not only the pressure of macroeconomic data but also a rethinking of the long-term direction of the market.