By the end of September, bitcoin fell from about 0.066 million US dollars to a low of 0.06 million US dollars on October 3rd, and then stabilized in a narrow range between 0.062 million US dollars and 0.063 million US dollars. However, in the early hours of today (October 10), it once again fell, falling below 0.061 million US dollars.

Despite the continuous downward fluctuation of bitcoin, the extent of this bull market correction is still relatively small, and it continues the pattern of previous bull markets, reflecting a certain degree of market resilience.

The overall market structure remains similar to past bull markets, reflecting both resilient demand and limited recent corrections. Compared to previous bull markets, the maximum retracement depth is shallow, indicating that demand dynamics are at play, suppressing deeper declines.

"Real market average price" and "active investor cost price" are two key indicators that help estimate the average cost basis of bitcoin investors in the current cycle. The former reflects the average entry price of all market participants, while the latter focuses on the average cost of active traders in recent months.

Since the beginning of this year, the spot price of bitcoin has mostly been higher than the prices of the above two indicators, indicating that even during price declines, the market still has a solid support base.

Investor behavior remains strong, with significant demand mitigating the impact of market retracements.

Bitcoin breaks below a key price level, testing the market's patience.

The average cost price of short-term holders is an important indicator to observe market trends.

Basically, as long as the closing price is above $64,500, the bullish momentum can be strengthened; on the other hand, if Bitcoin falls below the average cost price of short-term holders (within 3 months) of $61,600, investors' patience will face severe tests.

Bitcoin was trading at $61,000 when this report was written, falling by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, hitting a low of $60,388.17 today; the global crypto market cap stands at $2.22 trillion, with a 3.4% daily decline.

Bitcoin typically sees a strong uptrend after October 15th, and now with the support of stablecoin liquidity, this pattern is likely to repeat.

While the crypto market has cooled off since the 8th, the surge in on-chain data for 'stablecoin liquidity' and 'Bitcoin whale trades' indicates that Bitcoin may be poised for a 'rebound rally' in the upcoming weeks.

Stablecoin liquidity reached a record $169 billion at the end of September, marking a cumulative increase of 31% since the beginning of the year; among which, USDT market cap increased by $28 billion, nearing $120 billion with a market share of 71%; while USDC's market cap rose by $11 billion to $36 billion, growing 44% year-to-date with a market share of 21%.

Due to the spot trading of cryptos,Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.Mostly paired with stablecoins, the increased liquidity of stablecoins signifies strong market buying interest. Investors are accumulating 'silver bullets' that can be deployed at any time and are waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market to buy.

Historical data shows a clear positive correlation between the amount of stablecoins held by crypto exchanges (up 20% this year) and the price of bitcoin. Since the official start of the bull market cycle in January 2023, the total amount of USDT (ERC20) on exchanges has grown from $9.2 billion to $22.7 billion, a 146% increase.

It is worth noting that even as bitcoin consolidates in a sideways pattern, exchange reserves of stablecoins have increased by 20%.

Since entering October, bitcoin has dropped by over 6%. However, looking back at bitcoin's performance in October since 2013, the highest increase was 60%, with an average increase of 22%. Only 2 years in 11 have seen a decrease in October, making it the best-performing month.

Bitcoin usually experiences a strong rally after October 15. Now, supported by the liquidity of stablecoins, this trend is likely to repeat.

There has been a surge in trading activity among bitcoin 'whales'.

On the other hand, the trading volume of bitcoin 'whales' has recently increased significantly, which in history has often been a precursor to price increases. Whales refer to investors holding large amounts of assets, capable of significantly influencing market prices.

More and more long-dormant bitcoin whales are gradually waking up on the network, setting a record of $37.4 billion in on-chain transactions on Tuesday, the highest in nearly 7 months. Historically, dormant bitcoins returning to circulation in the market are favorable for price movements.

At 8:30 PM tonight, the USA September non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year will be announced. Previous value: 2.50%, Expected: 2.3%, lower than expected is bullish, higher than expected is bearish.

To be honest, currently, I feel that CPI is not very important anymore because rate cuts are already on their way, affecting bullish or bearish sentiment only in terms of the pace of rate cuts. In the long term, definitely leaning towards call positions. In the short term, there might be some impact from panic, but even if there is a drop, it won't be substantial; at most a minor setback. For those entering in the short term, be cautious of pullbacks, set stop-loss orders for those entering at higher levels, do not be overly aggressive in chasing highs, and for those entering at lower levels, do not easily exit positions. 'The bull market is approaching, macro stimuli are only temporary, it's the core driver that can last.'