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Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By China Hongguang Holdings Limited's (HKG:8646) 27% Share Price Plunge

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 10 18:48

The China Hongguang Holdings Limited (HKG:8646) share price has softened a substantial 27% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, China Hongguang Holdings may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.3x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 10x and even P/E's higher than 20x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at China Hongguang Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

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SEHK:8646 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry October 10th 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for China Hongguang Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as China Hongguang Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 47%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we can see why China Hongguang Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Bottom Line On China Hongguang Holdings' P/E

Shares in China Hongguang Holdings have plummeted and its P/E is now low enough to touch the ground. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of China Hongguang Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends are contributing to its low P/E, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 3 warning signs for China Hongguang Holdings that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Hongguang Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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