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这位华尔街老兵比“牛市旗手”更乐观! 高喊沪深300指数将狂飙至6000点

This Wall Street veteran is more optimistic than the 'Bull Market Pioneer'! He boldly proclaims that the csi 300 index will soar to 6000 points.

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 11, 2024 09:13

Jeff deGraaf from Renaissance Macro suggested that the CSI 300 index may reach 6000 points.

According to the Financial Intelligence APP, Jeff deGraaf, a senior market strategist from Wall Street and co-founder and CEO of Renaissance Macro Research, recently stated in an interview that after the CSI 300 index accumulated a 35% increase over 10 trading days earlier this week, hedge funds globally sold a record amount of Chinese stocks. DeGraaf mentioned that these institutions could face a regrettable world. DeGraaf predicted that one of the A-share benchmark indexes, the CSI 300 index, may surge by 50% in the next 12 months, challenging the 6000-point mark.

This Wall Street veteran, with extensive experience in the financial industry, holds an extremely optimistic stance on the Chinese stock market (including Hong Kong and A-shares). He emphasized his bullish view, highlighting the rarely seen perfect policy combination in his over thirty-year career in stock investments, stating, 'These stars are so perfectly aligned to drive a long rally.'

"Doubtful sentiment dissipates, with advantages in valuation, a massive stimulus scale, and changes in momentum and trends. All these factors are there," he emphasized in the interview. "This is one of the best lineups I've seen in my 35-year career."

Also recently, Mark Mobius, a senior investor on Wall Street known as the 'Emerging Markets Guru,' mentioned in an interview that if policymakers continue to introduce measures supporting the market, the rebound in the Chinese stock market may continue.

The views of Wall Street veteran DeGraaf, who has been investing in emerging markets for decades, and Mark Mobius, known as the 'Emerging Markets Father,' align perfectly with those of Wall Street financial giants such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. They all believe that the recent frenzy in the Chinese stock market (including Hong Kong and A-shares) since late September is not short-lived, but marks the beginning of a new epic 'long-term bull market' in the Chinese stock market, driven by strong expectations of government stimuli for the financial market and the real economy.

This Wall Street veteran predicts that the CSI 300 index will rise above 6000 points.

In this context, this senior investment professional, who once worked at Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, has now become one of the most optimistic Chinese stock market bulls on Wall Street. DeGraw predicts that one of the benchmark indices of the A-share market, the CSI 300 index, will reach 6000 points in the next 12 months, implying a potential increase of over 50%. By comparison, the CSI 300 index closed at 3997.79 points on Thursday.

The expectation for the CSI 300 index given by this Wall Street veteran is even higher than the 4600 points provided by Goldman Sachs, known as the 'pioneer of the global stock market bull market,' and higher than the 4900 points given by another Wall Street giant, Citigroup.

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It is known that Wall Street veteran DeGraw was voted the best technical strategist in the annual survey of "Wall Street Institutional Investors" for 11 consecutive years (up to 2015). In an interview, he stated that last month, the Chinese stock market tested its low for the year, and Beijing's launch of the most aggressive monetary easing policy in years was no coincidence. 'The market drives policy, while policy drives the market,' he mentioned in the interview.

His latest forecast seems much more optimistic compared to the latest revised CSI 300 index target by another Wall Street giant, Morgan Stanley (target point as of June 2025 is 4000 points). The cautious bullish stance of Morgan Stanley on the Chinese stock market implies that there is almost no upward space for the CSI 300 index after Thursday's closing.

On Wednesday, the index plummeted by 7.1%, with the Hong Kong stock market seeing a deeper decline. This was the second trading day after the National Day Golden Week holiday when the Chinese A-share market reopened. Despite rising by 1% on Thursday, a key policy meeting earlier this week lacked any further significant stimulus measures, leading some strategists skeptical about the Chinese stock market to believe that the enthusiasm for the market surge driven by expectations of policy benefits is waning.

DeGraw remains bullish on the long-term upward trend of the Chinese market but advises investors to 'maintain stop-loss and avoid being stubborn.' The Wall Street senior investment professional, known as the 'Godfather of emerging markets,' Maipu Si, believes that the bearish sentiment in the Chinese stock market has been completely shattered, hence market is expected to continue to show a strong bullish stance.

Currently, Wall Street traders focusing on the Chinese stock market are waiting for the briefing on fiscal policy from the Ministry of Finance on Saturday.

Degraff said in an interview: "We believe that the policy response is self-protective, a counter-attack against dissenting voices, and China may be ushering in a 'whatever it takes' moment similar to Mario Draghi's. In the eyes of some Wall Street strategists who witnessed the eurozone emerge from the eurozone debt crisis, the moment when the Chinese government proposed these heavy stimulus measures could be compared to the 'whatever it takes' moment back then, similar to former ECB President Mario Draghi's steadfast promise to maintain the common currency of the eurozone during the 2012 European debt crisis."

This seasoned Wall Street veteran in the financial industry also downplayed the potential risk impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the Chinese stock market. "This is just a minor episode, probably insignificant, and the market's response will be an important opportunity."

The voice of "being bullish on China" echoes through Wall Street.

The government's massive stimulus plan has sparked a new wave of foreign capital inflows and a frenzy in upgrading investment ratings for the Chinese stock market. Major global asset management giant BlackRock Inc., as well as Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley, which have long been bearish on the Chinese stock market (including Hong Kong and A-shares), have also shifted to a bullish stance. These foreign institutions are using substantial funds to promote a large-scale rebound in the Chinese stock market. Wall Street investment banks and hedge fund institutions, which have been cautious about the Chinese stock market for a long time, have suddenly turned overwhelmingly bullish on both Hong Kong and A-shares.

According to EFPR statistics, in the single week ending October 2nd, EFPR-tracked emerging market stock funds recorded the second largest weekly inflow of funds this year, with almost all of these inflowing funds pouring into the Chinese stock market (including Hong Kong and A-shares).

BlackRock, which has long maintained a cautious stance on the Chinese stock market, recently stated that it has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks from 'neutral' to 'overweight'. The institution believes that given the significant discount of the Chinese stock market compared to developed market stock markets approaching record levels, and the strong catalysts that may stimulate investors to re-enter the market, major institutions still have ample room to moderately increase their holdings of Chinese stocks in the short term.

Renowned billionaire investor David Tepper advised investors to "buy everything" related to China. He attributed his significant bets on the Chinese stock market to the massive stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government. In 2023, Tepper wholeheartedly followed the global AI boom. Now, this hedge fund industry bigwig is shouting "buy everything" related to China and selling overvalued US tech stocks like Nvidia.

Goldman Sachs, known as the "flagship of the global stock market bull market", raised its rating on the Chinese stock market to 'overweight' in its latest report, and raised the target level of the CSI 300 index from 4000 to 4600. The CSI 300 index closed at 4256.10 points on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs also raised the target level of the MSCI China Index, covering core Chinese assets such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Kweichow Moutai, from 66 to 84, while the MSCI China Index closed at 70 points on Thursday. In terms of industry allocation, Goldman Sachs stated that due to increased capital market activity and improved asset performance, it raised insurance and other financial sectors (such as brokerages, exchanges, and investment institutions) to 'overweight'. At the same time, Goldman Sachs maintains an 'overweight' position on China's internet and entertainment, technology hardware and semiconductors, consumer retail and services, as well as daily necessities.

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Another Wall Street giant Citigroup recently released a research report stating that the benchmark index of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index, is expected to be raised by 24% to 26,000 points by the end of June 2025, with the year-end target set at 28,000 points. Citigroup raised the target levels for the CSI 300 and MSCI China Index in the first half of next year to 4,600 and 84 points respectively, and set the year-end targets at 4,900 and 90 points.

Wall Street's well-known investment institution Bernstein recently reaffirmed its 'tactical shareholding position' in the Chinese stock market and stated that, under policy support, the Chinese stock market will further rise. In a latest research report released on Thursday, the institution wrote: 'A series of stimulating policies recently introduced by the Chinese government, as well as fiscal stimulus initiatives, have triggered a strong bullish response from investors, with a large influx of international funds pouring into the Chinese stock market, and passive funds from the usa also hitting a historical high. After the introduction of a series of policies, we have switched to a bullish stance, and still believe that the risk-return profile of the China market tilts towards the upside.'

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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