Elevated CPO Pricing May Not Be Sustainable
Elevated CPO Pricing May Not Be Sustainable
CPO prices have surprised many in the market, remaining strong due to tight supply conditions, especially in Indonesia. However, with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, there is concern that the current pricing trends may not be sustainable. Notably, CPO is trading at a premium over other oils such as soyoils and sunflower oils, which may lead to reduced competitiveness in the market. RHB Investment Bank Bhd has The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported a significant increase in crude palm oil (CPO) stockpiles, hitting an eight-month high of 2.01 million tonnes (mt) by the end of September 2024. This rise is attributed to a sharp decline in domestic consumption, which saw a staggering 37% month-on-month drop to just 0.15mt. The report suggests that Malaysia's CPO production may have peaked in August, prompting analysts to closely monitor Indonesia's output, expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. A strong recovery in Indonesia's CPO production could lead to downward pressure on CPO prices, which currently trade at an unsustainable premium compared to other vegetable oils.
馬來西亞棕櫚油局（MPOB）報告稱，原油棕櫚油（CPO）庫存顯著增加，於2024年9月底達到了201萬噸，創八個月來的新高。這一增長歸因於國內消費急劇下降，同比下降了驚人的37%，僅爲0.15萬噸。報告指出，馬來西亞的CPO產量可能在8月份達到峯值，分析師們預計印尼的產量將在2024年第四季度達到峯值，並密切關注其走勢。印尼CPO產量的強勁復甦可能會對CPO價格造成下行壓力，目前CPO價格較其他植物油交易價格處於不可持續的溢價狀態。
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd has maintained a NEUTRAL stance on the sector, with BUY recommendations for SD Guthrie (SDG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), Ta Ann (TAH), and Bumitama Agri (BAL).
Maybank投資銀行Bhd維持了對該板塊的中立立場，對SD Guthrie（SDG）、沙撈越油棕（SOP）、長益（TAH）和布米達馬農業（BAL）提出了買入建議。
The MPOB's figures surpassed market expectations, with September's stockpile exceeding the anticipated 1.95mt. The increase was driven by a combination of high output, recorded at 1.82mt, and a decrease in domestic consumption, alongside a modest rise in exports, which reached 1.54mt. Imports fell sharply to a mere 0.005mt as high domestic CPO prices in Indonesia deterred Malaysian refiners. Preliminary export estimates for October indicate a promising start, with independent cargo surveyors reporting shipments of approximately 490,582 tonnes, representing a 19% month-on-month increase.
MPOB的數據超出了市場預期，9月的庫存超過了預期的1.95萬噸。這一增長是由高產量（記錄爲1.82萬噸）和國內消費的下降、出口的小幅增長驅動的，出口量達到1.54萬噸。進口量急劇下降至僅0.005萬噸，因印尼高國內CPO價格遏制了馬來西亞煉油商的熱情。10月初的初步出口估計表明了一個有希望的開始，獨立貨物檢驗員報告了大約490,582噸的貨物，較上月增長了19%。
CPO prices have surprised many in the market, remaining strong due to tight supply conditions, especially in Indonesia. However, with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, there is concern that the current pricing trends may not be sustainable. Notably, CPO is trading at a premium over other oils such as soyoils and sunflower oils, which may lead to reduced competitiveness in the market. RHB Investment Bank Bhd has reiterated a NEUTRAL outlook for the sector, while identifying Johor Plantations Group (JPG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), SD Guthrie (SDG), and London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) as new top picks.
CPO價格讓市場許多人感到驚訝，由於供應短缺，尤其在印尼。然而，隨着預計的印尼產量增加，人們擔心目前的定價趨勢可能不具可持續性。值得注意的是，CPO與其他油品（如豆油和葵花籽油）相比，價格處於溢價狀態，可能導致市場競爭力降低。RHb投資銀行有限公司重申了對該行業的中立前景，同時將柔佛種植團體（JPG）、沙撈越油棕（SOP）、SD Guthrie（SDG）和倫敦巽他印尼（LSIP）確定爲新的首選股。
Weather disruptions have also played a role in shaping the market landscape, with wet weather reported across key producing regions, impacting harvesting and transportation. The forecast of continued La Niña conditions raises concerns about further disruptions, which could influence both supply levels and pricing dynamics. As a result, MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd has also maintained a NEUTRAL stance, projecting average CPO prices of RM4,000 per tonne, while highlighting the importance of weather patterns in shaping future price movements. The report emphasises the potential for continued elevated CPO prices, albeit coupled with a warning of demand rationing as CPO becomes less attractive compared to other oils.
天氣干擾也在塑造市場格局中發揮作用，關鍵產區出現溼潤天氣，影響收穫和運輸。繼續出現「拉尼娜」現象的預測引發了對進一步干擾的擔憂，這可能影響供應水平和價格動態。因此，馬來西亞國際金融有限公司信託投資銀行也保持中立立場，預測棕櫚油平均價格爲每噸4,000令吉，同時強調天氣模式在塑造未來價格走勢方面的重要性。報告強調了持續高企的棕櫚油價格潛力，儘管警告稱，隨着棕櫚油與其他油脂相比不再那麼具吸引力，需求可能會受限。
The stocks mentioned in the reports are:
報告中提到的股票有：
Buy Recommendations
買入建議
| Company Name | Ticker | Current Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Guthrie | SDG | 4.64 | 5.20 |
| Swk Oil Palms | SOP | 3.19 | 4.10 |
| Ta Ann | TAH | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.745 | 0.78 |
| IOI Corp | – | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| Johor Plantations Group | – | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Kuala Lumpur Kepong | – | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| PP London Sumatra Indonesia | – | 1,130 IDR | 1,130 IDR |
| Sarawak Oil Palms | – | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| SD Guthrie | – | 5.35 | 5.35 |
| 公司名稱 | 逐筆明細 | 當前價格 (RM) | 目標價 (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Guthrie | SDG | 4.64 | 5.20 |
| Swk Oil Palms | SOP | 3.19 | 4.10 |
| 長益 | TSH | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| 布米達馬農業 | 板塊 | 0.745 | 0.78 |
| IOI Corp | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| 柔佛種植集團 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| 吉隆坡肯宏 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| PP倫敦蘇門答臘印尼 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 1,130 印尼盾 | 1,130 印尼盾 |
| 砂勞越油棕 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| SD Guthrie | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 5.35%（2022年12月31日爲4.41%） | 5.35%（2022年12月31日爲4.41%） |
Neutral Recommendations
中立建議
| Company Name | Ticker | Current Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | – | 5,460 IDR | 5,460 IDR |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.70 SGD | 0.70 SGD |
| FGV Holdings | – | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| First Resources | – | 1.45 SGD | 1.45 SGD |
| Golden Agri | – | 0.25 SGD | 0.25 SGD |
| Ta Ann | TAH | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| TSH Resources | – | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Wilmar International | – | 3.10 SGD | 3.10 SGD |
| 公司名稱 | 逐筆明細 | 當前價格 (RM) | 目標價 (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 5,460 印尼盾 | 5,460 印尼盾 |
| 布米達馬農業 | 板塊 | 0.70 新加坡元 | 0.70 新加坡元 |
| FGV 控股 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| 益資源 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 1.45 新加坡元 | 1.45 新加坡元 |
| 金光農業 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 0.25 新加坡元 | 0.25 新加坡元 |
| 長益 | TSH | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 盈申控股資源 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Wilmar國際 | 2024年6月30日終止的會計分析 | 3.10 新加坡元 | 3.10 新加坡元 |
