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Investing in International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE:IFF) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 64% Gain

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 11 13:50

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (NYSE:IFF) share price is 60% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 32% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 31% in three years.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last year International Flavors & Fragrances saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop below zero. While some may see this as temporary, we're a skeptical bunch, and so we're a little surprised to see the share price go up. It may be that the company has done well on other metrics.

We doubt the modest 1.6% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. International Flavors & Fragrances' revenue actually dropped 4.7% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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NYSE:IFF Earnings and Revenue Growth October 11th 2024

International Flavors & Fragrances is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for International Flavors & Fragrances the TSR over the last 1 year was 64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that International Flavors & Fragrances has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 64% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 0.3% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that International Flavors & Fragrances is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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