■As previously reported, the House of Representatives was dissolved on the 9th

This week's Nikkei Average rose 970.18 yen (+ 2.51%) to 39605.80 yen per week. The Nikkei Average recovered to the 39,000 yen level from the beginning of the week, based on the depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of US stocks after the announcement of US employment statistics in September. Prime Minister Ishiwari dissolved the House of Representatives on 10/9, and since the election for members of the House of Representatives was held according to the schedule (announced on the 15th, vote counting on the 27th) that had been conveyed in advance, the development was slowly approaching the high price of 39829.56 yen on 9/27, which was attached in a high market trade even though there was no conspicuous shopping. Since the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fluctuated in the Chinese market after the National Day holiday, it was not a position for risk selection, and there was no return high price update, but it continued to grow for 3 days over the weekend, and there was a steady trend throughout the week. However, the special settlement index (SQ) value of the option mini Nikkei average futures calculated on the 11th was 39701.93 yen (preliminary value) and the “phantom SQ” left above.

Note, according to trading trends by investor in the 1st week of October, foreign investors oversold actual goods by 420.2 billion yen, oversold TOPIX futures by 403.9 billion yen, and oversold 225 futures by 166.9 billion yen, resulting in a total oversale of 150.6 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors overbought the actual product by 137.1 billion yen, etc., for a total of 81.5 billion yen. I oversold the actual item by 1 trillion233 billion yen, and the trust overbought the actual item by 210.9 billion yen.

■Prime market trading prices split 4 trillion yen for 4 consecutive days

As for the Prime market trading price, trading became active on the 7th of the beginning of the week using US employment statistics, but after that, business became quiet, and it fell below the 4 trillion yen level for 4 consecutive business days. The Nikkei Average is solid, but since buying concentrated on stocks with a large index impact, such as Advantest ＜6857＞ and Fast Lite ＜9983＞, the NT ratio expanded to the 14.6 times range. Excluding the fluctuation on 8/5, the NT ratio has expanded to the level since the beginning of April, and the weakness of TOPIX and the strength of some Nikkei average impact stocks stand out. The exchange market showed a calm movement at a high level of depreciation of the yen and dollar in the 148 yen range, but it seems that aggressive purchases of a wide range of stocks were refrained due to concerns about rough price movements in the Chinese market after the National Day holiday and sales awaiting return ahead of a recovery in the 0.04 million yen level. Although the House of Representatives has been dissolved, there has been no conspicuous search for election-related stocks, and the excitement for vote counting on the 27th is now in a state of affairs.

Meanwhile, since 2000, the House of Representatives has been dissolved 8 times, and when viewed based on the closing price of the Nikkei Average, the winning ratio from the dissolution date until before voting is as high as 7 wins and 1 loss, and on average, the rate of increase is close to 4%. There is still no strong development that is conscious of “elections are a buy,” but there is a possibility that the market will also enter election mode in the wake of announcements on the 15th when promises etc. of each political party will come out.

■The announcement of US financial results is in full swing

The US stock market rebounded on the 11th. The Dow average closed at 42863.86 dollars, 409.74 dollars higher than the previous day, the NASDAQ closed at 18342.94, 60.89 points higher, and the S&P 500 closed at 5815.03, which was 34.98 points higher. Financial results announcements were in full swing, and US stocks rose in response to good financial results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Next week, in addition to Citigroup and Alcoa, financial results such as Goldman Sachs and Procter & Gamble, which are NY Dow constituent brands, are also ahead. There is also a possibility that the NY Dow, which has hit an all-time high, will rise one level due to a sharp rise in constituent stocks, so I would like to increase interest in financial results announcements. Also, since NVIDIA is rising above the upper resistance line starting from the all-time high in June, it can be expected that the NASDAQ will also update its all-time high.

The rise in Advantest is conspicuous, but if buying spreads to Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞, it will be the driving force behind boosting the Nikkei Average. Nikkei 225 futures on the Taisei Night Session closed at 39760 yen, 150 yen higher than the intraday closing price in response to rising US stocks. If the Tokyo market were to be pulled by strong US stocks, the Nikkei Average would be in full view of recovering to the 40000 yen level.

■ECB Board Meeting to be held on 17th

Next week, domestically, the August industrial production (confirmed value) is scheduled for the 15th, August machine orders for the 16th, the September trade balance for the 17th, and the September consumer price index for the 18th.

Overseas, the Sino-September trade balance on the 14th, the Anglo/September employment statistics on the 15th, the German/October ZEW business confidence index, the Europe/October ZEW business confidence index, the August industrial production index, the US-October NY Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing business climate index, the NZ/3rd quarter consumer price index, the Australia/September Westpac leading index, the English-September consumer price index, retail price index, producer price index, South August retail sales volume, US-September import price index on the 17th, Australia/September employment statistics, Turkey/Central Bank Policy interest rates, Europe/ECB policy interest rates, US-September retail sales, October Philadelphia Federal Bank business condition index, number of new weekly unemployment insurance claims, September industrial production index, weekly crude oil inventory, mid-September new housing sales prices on the 18th, real GDP for the 3rd quarter, September industrial production index, retail sales volume, UK/September retail sales, number of housing starts in the US and September, etc. are scheduled.