国信证券此前指出，中远海控发布前三季度业绩预告，同比增长超70%，表现优异，但是即期市场表现仍不容乐观，当前红海危机对欧线需求增速的一次性冲击效应已经逐步消退，需求侧目前仍具有较大压力，美东的罢工问题亦得以暂缓，供给侧的扰动因素未对行业运价形成明显支撑，行业运价仍在寻找新的平衡点。但是考虑到红海危机的长期化，且联盟对运力投放具有约束性作用，我们认为运价中长期来看有望维持于红海危机前的水平。Marine transportation stocks continued to rebound in early trading. As of the time of writing, ooil (00316) rose by 3.62%, to 108.8 Hong Kong dollars; sinotrans limited (00598) rose by 3.02%, to 4.09 Hong Kong dollars; sitc (01308) rose by 1.97%, to 20.7 Hong Kong dollars; cosco shipping holdings (01919) rose by 1.52%, to 12.02 Hong Kong dollars.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, marine transportation stocks continued to rebound in early trading. As of the time of writing, ooil (00316) rose by 3.62%, to 108.8 Hong Kong dollars; sinotrans limited (00598) rose by 3.02%, to 4.09 Hong Kong dollars; sitc (01308) rose by 1.97%, to 20.7 Hong Kong dollars; cosco shipping holdings (01919) rose by 1.52%, to 12.02 Hong Kong dollars.
On the news front, entering the peak season for Europe routes in November and December, major shipping companies have started the first round of GRI rate increases in November. Maersk and MSC announced their cooperation plan to continue circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope from February 2025, breaking the market's expectation of the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea.
Guosen Securities previously pointed out that cosco shipping holdings released a performance forecast for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of over 70%, showing excellent performance. However, the immediate market performance is still not optimistic, as the one-time impact of the Red Sea crisis on the growth rate of Europe routes demand has gradually subsided, and there is still significant pressure on the demand side. While the strike issue on the US East Coast has been temporarily alleviated, disruptive factors on the supply side have not provided clear support for industry freight rates, and industry rates continue to seek a new balance point. Considering the prolonged nature of the Red Sea crisis and the constraining role of alliances on capacity deployment, we believe that freight rates are expected to maintain levels similar to those before the Red Sea crisis in the medium to long term.
