兴业研究指，美债收益率逼近阻力位，中债收益率回落，黄金短期调整结束，再度逼近历史前高，有可能再创新高。中期来看，中美降息空间打开进一步推升金价上限，未来中国财政政策发力将带动中国中央政府杠杆率进一步抬升，利多金价。Jinwu Financial News | Gold stocks rose against the market. Lingbao Gold (03330) rose 3.26%, China Gold International (02099) rose 2.73%, Shandong Gold (01787) rose 2.46%, Zijin Mining (02899) rose 2.36%, and Zhaojin Mining (01818) rose 1.53%.
According to the news, the World Gold Council published an article stating that demand for gold from central banks around the world slowed in August 2024, and the net purchase volume of gold was about 8 tons. Although overall demand for gold from central banks around the world has declined somewhat since the high in early 2024, it has maintained a positive growth trend.
Huayuan Securities said that gold prices remained volatile at a high level due to the intertwining of expectations of a decline in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November and expectations of further inflation. Looking at the short term, the US employment and inflation data for September gradually led the market to cut interest rates to 25BP in November. Since then, there is a vacuum in US data. It is expected that gold prices will still fluctuate mainly at high levels, focusing on the November US election and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Looking at the long term, the bank believes that gold is expected to be on an upward trend in the medium to long term against the backdrop of US monetary and fiscal policies being relaxed, US dollar credit contraction, and geopolitical events intensifying.
According to Societe Generale Research, US bond yields are approaching resistance levels, Chinese bond yields are falling, short-term gold adjustments are over, once again approaching record highs, and are likely to reach new highs. In the medium term, there is room for interest rate cuts between China and the US to further push up the upper limit of gold prices. In the future, the strength of China's fiscal policy will drive the Chinese central government's leverage ratio to further increase, which will benefit the price of gold.
