此外，燃油成本占航司成本近四成。国泰君安此前在研报中指出，油价中枢已同比下降，提示Q4淡季供需承压或将转化为票价下降，而春运暑运等旺季供需恢复良好将大概率展现超预期盈利弹性，有望催化乐观预期。近日油价短期波动或影响投资情绪，不改航空油价下跌期权与长期价值，或提供逆向时机。Aviation/airlines industry continues to decline, as of the time of publication, Air China Limited (00753) fell by 4.14%, to HKD 3.94; China Eastern Airlines (00670) fell by 3.64%, to HKD 2.12; China Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 3.17%, to HKD 3.05; Meilan Airport (00357) fell by 2.38%, to HKD 8.21.
According to the Securities Times app, the aviation/airlines industry continues to decline, as of the time of publication, Air China Limited (00753) fell by 4.14%, to HKD 3.94; China Eastern Airlines (00670) fell by 3.64%, to HKD 2.12; China Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 3.17%, to HKD 3.05; Meilan Airport (00357) fell by 2.38%, to HKD 8.21.
gtja stated, 'During the National Day holiday, passenger traffic reached a new high, post-holiday demand is gradually recovering, airlines continue to prioritize passenger load factor, ticket prices remain low while passenger load factor stays high. It is recommended to pay attention to the replacement of international flight rights at the end of October for the 2023-2024 aviation season. Supply and demand in aviation is gradually recovering from 2023 to 2024, aircraft fleet utilization is gradually recovering in 2023, passenger load factor is basically recovering in 2024, and expectations for revenue and profitability performance in 2025. International capacity expansion continues, with hope for accelerated recovery in supply and demand from future consumer spending. Profit center is expected to rise once supply and demand recover. Expected to be at a low point, central oil prices falling will help the peak season show profit elasticity beyond expectations, hopefully catalyzing optimistic expectations.'
In addition, rbob gasoline costs account for nearly forty percent of airlines' costs. gtja previously pointed out in research reports that central oil prices have declined year-on-year, indicating that the pressure on supply and demand during the off-peak season in Q4 may translate into lower ticket prices, while peak seasons like Spring Festival and Summer travel having a good recovery of supply and demand will likely show higher-than-expected profit elasticity, potentially triggering optimistic expectations. Recent short-term fluctuations in oil prices may affect investment sentiment, but the decline in aviation fuel prices could provide opportunities for put options and long-term value, offering a contrarian opportunity.
