On October 14, Cailian News Agency (Reporter Liu Mengran) reported that prices in the photovoltaic industry chain have remained low, and the capacity clearance has already begun. Today, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a seminar on preventing vicious competition within the industry, aiming to resolve excess capacity earlier.

As this meeting was held in a closed-door format, the specific discussion content was not disclosed. Some business people told the Cailian News Agency reporters that they are looking forward to relevant departments introducing specific measures to improve the current industry chain supply-demand balance. However, the actual challenge lies in the difficulty of a single price constraint mechanism to be effective considering the differences in customer composition and cost structure. Without a production reduction plan, the short-term excess supply situation is unlikely to change.

According to the WeChat account of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, entrepreneurs and representatives had thorough communication and reached a consensus on "strengthening industry self-discipline, preventing 'vicious competition', enhancing the market survival of the fittest mechanism, and smoothening the channel for the exit of backward and inefficient production capacity" for the industry's healthy and sustainable development.

It is reported that a total of 16 leading photovoltaic companies participated in this meeting, covering various aspects including polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules, such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Longi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ), JinkoSolar (688223.SH), Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (688599.SH), among others. The specific agenda of the meeting included three items: discussing an industry self-discipline agreement on "anti-internal-competition, anti-dumping below cost" and other topics; orderly resolving supply and demand imbalances, clearing excess production capacity and other related measures; providing other suggestions to guide the industry's healthy and orderly development.

The tug-of-war over capacity clearance continues to this day, but even at the lowest prices, production in each link is reaching record highs. Data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that in the first half of 2024, polysilicon production was around 1.06 million tons, an increase of about 60.6% year-on-year; silicon wafer output was about 402GW, a year-on-year increase of about 58.9%; solar cell production was about 310GW, a year-on-year increase of about 37.8%; and module production was about 271GW, a year-on-year increase of about 32.2%.

Regarding prices, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and related departments have organized numerous seminars, calling for "anti-internal competition" and rational competition within the industry, but module prices have not stopped falling. According to infolink news, after National Day, market demand remains weak, and the overall prices are still declining due to low prices, with module average prices starting to approach 0.7 yuan/W.

At the Longi Green Energy 2024 interim results briefing, Chairman Zhong Baoshen was asked about when the inflection point in photovoltaic industry prices might occur. He believes that "currently, all links are at a low point, and the price direction should be upwards in the future, but the timing is uncertain because it depends on the overall supply-demand relationship, as well as the competitive dynamics among companies."

However, in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, constrained by cost factors, there has been stabilization. In the latest investor relations activity record table released by trina solar co., ltd., the company's management believes that in the short term, after several weeks of continuous stabilization, the price of polycrystalline silicon has experienced a slight rebound, indirectly confirming the basic consensus on price bottom reaching between the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. However, before a significant improvement in supply and demand occurs, the price of polycrystalline silicon is likely to stabilize in the short term.

Additionally, with the arrival of the dry season in the fourth quarter, the increase in electricity costs will lead to a rise in industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon production costs. With the improvement of the supply and demand situation, prices are expected to continue to rise slightly.

Although there is still no clear signal of clearing up at present, the postponement of new projects has to some extent alleviated the overcapacity situation. On September 30th, trina solar co., ltd. announced that the second phase of the "Annual production of 35GW direct pulling monocrystalline project" in the company's fundraising project will be postponed to reach the scheduled usable date for 15GW, changing from the original plan of completion in December of this year to a postponement until June 2026.