截至上周五收盘，英伟达10月初以来两周内已累涨11%，今年内累涨约172.2%，若保持周一盘中涨势，将进一步扩大10月内10%以上的涨幅，年内涨幅将开始迈向180%，过去12个月累计涨幅接近200%。At the beginning of this month, Huang Renxun claimed that Blackwell chips have been fully put into production, and the demand is "crazy"; Morgan Stanley reported last week that Blackwell chips will be sold out in the next 12 months, bullish on the prospect of the chip's long-term demand boosted by the release of OpenAI's reasoning model o1; Nvidia's chip customer OpenAI completed a huge $6.6 billion financing at the beginning of the month, with the foundry partner Taiwan Semiconductor's sales exceeding expectations, all becoming good news for Nvidia; Last week, a wave of call options buying showed that investors are betting Nvidia's price in March next year could be up to 40% higher than the closing price last Friday.
The leading stock in the concept of AI, nvidia's stock price has started a rising trend since October, reaching a new historical high on Monday for the first time in nearly four months, reflecting investors' bullish outlook on the strong demand for nvidia's latest mass-produced architecture chip - the Blackwell chip.
In the early trading of US stocks on Monday, October 14, nvidia's stock price, which was generally flat last Friday, opened up more than 1.2% and accelerated its rise. In early trading, it rose to $139.6, reaching its intraday high set on June 20, up nearly 3.6% intraday. The increase later narrowed to within 3%, closing up over 2.4% at $238.07, setting a new closing high since June 18.
By the close of last Friday, nvidia had risen by 11% in the first two weeks of October, accumulating about 172.2% year-to-date. If the rising trend continues on Monday, it will further expand the increase of over 10% in October and the year-to-date increase will approach 180%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 200% in the past 12 months.
As a giant in AI chips, nvidia will undoubtedly still be the darling of the AI boom in the US stock market in 2024. Specifically, the significant rise within this month reflects nvidia's success in soothing investors' concerns about the long-term growth prospects of Blackwell chip delayed shipments.
Previously reported by Wall Street News, in early September, due to design flaws, the most advanced AI chip in the Blackwell series is expected to be delayed by three months or more, with a significant delay in mass shipments of Blackwell chips possibly extending to the first quarter of next year. Since then, the production and demand trends of Blackwell chips have attracted more attention and affected the stock market.
After the US stock market trading on October 2, nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang explicitly stated that the chips based on the Blackwell architecture have been "fully launched" and the demand for Blackwell chips is "insane." At that time, comments indicated that Huang's remarks alleviated concerns about delays in the production of Blackwell chips.
Some media believed on Monday this week that the recent strength in Nvidia's stock price is partially due to Huang Renxun's statement above. In addition, a report released by Morgan Stanley after meeting with Nvidia's management last week also brought bullish news. The report revealed that the Blackwell chip's products for the next 12 months have been sold out, indicating strong market demand and suggesting that the trend of high growth in shipments will continue throughout the year, stating that all signs indicate that the business remains strong, and the outlook is very bright.
Last week, Nvidia's management mentioned the OpenAI's first model with reasoning capabilities, o1, in a closed-door meeting at an AI summit, stating that with the release of OpenAI's o1 model, a new AI narrative is unfolding and the increased demand for inference computing power is bringing Nvidia new growth opportunities. The above report by Morgan Stanley believes that inference computing will boost the long-term demand for AI chips, expecting Nvidia to perform strongly in 2025 and considering 2026 as the early stage of a long-term investment cycle.
The above comments and evaluations have solidified investors' view that Nvidia is still the preferred way to invest in AI, especially as major companies continue to focus on AI investment. Zehrid Osmani, portfolio manager at Martin Currie Investment Management, said, "People had questioned the impact of production delays, so these updates are reassuring."
John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, stated that these events "have reignited interest in the AI field, and people are very excited about reasoning-based AI use cases. Reasoning represents a new area for Nvidia, and given its computational intensity, this could be a huge new product category."
In addition to the optimistic outlook for the Blackwell chip, the recent sales performance of Nvidia's key chip manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor, also reflects the strong market demand for AI. TSMC's revenue data for September, released last Wednesday, comfortably exceeded market expectations, with sales reaching 251.87 billion Taiwan dollars, a 39.6% year-on-year increase, and the total sales for the first nine months of this year growing by 31.9% year-on-year. Analysts believe that "TSMC has always been at the forefront of AI development." HSBC expects that the third-quarter report to be released by TSMC this Thursday will show that the enterprise continues to perform well above the performance guidance.
Furthermore, some media outlets have pointed out that the recent increase in Nvidia's stock price began on October 2nd. On that day, OpenAI announced a new round of massive financing of 6.6 billion US dollars, reaching a valuation of 157 billion US dollars, with Nvidia reportedly participating as well. A large portion of this financing received by OpenAI is expected to "flow back" to Nvidia, as OpenAI's energy needs are growing and the demand for AI chips to be deployed is increasing.
The media mentioned that some Wall Street analysts reiterated their buy ratings on Nvidia's stock last week. KeyBanc's report anticipates that the new Blackwell chips alone will bring in $7 billion in revenue for Nvidia in the fourth quarter of this year, and the demand for old chips is "still very strong." Wedbush analysts believe that AI startups may see a new round of financing, which will also increase revenue for Nvidia.
Recently, there have been signs of optimism in the options market regarding Nvidia's outlook. Last Thursday, Nvidia saw a wave of call options buying, where option holders can purchase over 30 million shares of Nvidia at prices between $150 and $189 by March next year. This buying range is 11.3% to 40.2% higher than Nvidia's closing price last Friday.
