这一比例比该机构7月份的调查时要高出12个百分点。① According to the latest polls, most economists believe that inflation, deficits, and interest rates in the “Trump 2.0” scenario will be higher than Harris; ② At the same time, Trump and Harris are still evenly matched in the polls.
Financial Services Association, Oct. 15 (Editor: Huang Junzhi) A recent US media survey found that economists expect that under the economic agenda proposed by former US President Trump, the inflation rate, national deficit, and interest rates may all be higher than its competitor, Vice President Harris.
According to reports, in a survey conducted from October 4 to 8, 68% of respondents said they believe that if Trump is re-elected, then during his second term, the US inflation rate will rise faster than under the circumstances of Harris being elected president.
This ratio is 12 percentage points higher than when the agency surveyed in July.
In contrast, the survey showed that only 12% of respondents believed that if Harris joined the White House, the inflation rate would be higher, while the rest of the respondents “think there is no substantial difference between the two candidates.”
Additionally, 65% of economists say they think Trump's policies will increase the country's deficit more than Harris' policy agenda. This ratio is also up 14 percentage points from the July survey.
Shortly before the survey results were released, the US bipartisan policy think tank “Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget” (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) stated that it is expected that by 2035, the plans proposed by the two candidates may increase the national debt by trillions of dollars.
At the same time, however, the report also found that Trump's tax and spending plans could double the national debt as much as Harris. The agency found that Harris's plan could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion over the next ten years, while Trump's plan is estimated to increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion.
In a recent media survey, economists were also asked about the potential impact of some of Trump's proposed tariffs on domestic manufacturing employment. 59% of economists think the employment rate will decline, and 16% of economists think the employment rate will rise in the next few years. The rest of the interviewees said the employment situation will remain the same.
61% of respondents said they expect interest rates to be higher during Trump's second term.
The survey also showed that 45% of economists expect economic output to grow at a faster rate under Harris, while under Trump this ratio is 37%, and 18% think there is “no substantial difference.”
Currently, there are only about 3 weeks left until the official general election on November 5, and Trump and Harris are still evenly matched in the polls.
In 248 polls tracked by “The Hill” (The Hill) /Decision Desk HQ (DECISION DESK HQ, hereinafter referred to as DDHQ), Harris was only 2.9% ahead of Trump.
