The Sichuan Golden Summit (group) Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600678) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 45%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 34% in the last year.
After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in China's Basic Materials industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider Sichuan Golden Summit (group) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 8x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
SHSE:600678 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 15th 2024
What Does Sichuan Golden Summit (group)'s Recent Performance Look Like?
For example, consider that Sichuan Golden Summit (group)'s financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Sichuan Golden Summit (group), take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Sichuan Golden Summit (group) would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 8.7%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 5.6% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 7.6% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Sichuan Golden Summit (group)'s P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What Does Sichuan Golden Summit (group)'s P/S Mean For Investors?
Shares in Sichuan Golden Summit (group) have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Sichuan Golden Summit (group) revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Sichuan Golden Summit (group) you should know about.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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