Key Insights
- Using the Dividend Discount Model, Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd fair value estimate is CN¥4.81
- With CN¥5.11 share price, Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Industry average of 731% suggests Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002478) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We have to calculate the value of Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd slightly differently to other stocks because it is a metals and mining company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%. Relative to the current share price of CN¥5.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= CN¥0.3 / (9.2% – 2.9%)
= CN¥4.8
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.266. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Dividend information for 002478.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
- Is 002478 well equipped to handle threats?
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd, we've put together three pertinent factors you should explore:
- Risks: Be aware that Jiangsu Changbao SteeltubeLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
- Future Earnings: How does 002478's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
