The A-share semiconductor sector is overall expected to perform well in the third quarter based on the performance forecasts released up to now.

According to the statistics by the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, from the beginning of this month until the close of October 15th, a total of fifteen semiconductor companies in A-shares have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first three quarters of this year. Among them, eleven companies forecasted growth while two managed to turn around losses.

In terms of the growth rate for the first three quarters, Allwinner Technology's net income is expected to increase by 781.09% to 858.93%, ranking first in the group of fifteen companies.

Following that, Crystal-Optech's net income is expected to increase by 744.01% to 837.79%; Will Semiconductor's net income is projected to increase by over 5 times; Sitech Vision expects to turn around losses with a growth rate of at least 485.41%; Rockchip Electronics' net income is expected to more than triple; Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronics, Espressif Systems, and Tendy Yu chip companies all anticipate doubling their net income.

The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily noted that the moderate industry recovery and rising market demand have become the main theme for the above-mentioned semiconductor companies' performance expectations of growth or profit turnaround this time.

Haiguang Information stated in their announcement that during the reporting period, the company has been focusing on the general computing market, continuously increasing investment in R&D, maintaining market-leading product competitiveness. With the continuous increase in market demand, it further drove rapid growth in its revenue.

Will Semiconductor stated that in the first three quarters of this year, market demand continued to recover, downstream customer demands increased. Along with the company's product introduction in the high-end smart phone market and the continuous penetration of the automotive market in autonomous driving applications, its revenue and gross margin achieved significant growth.

Chipbond Integration stated that with the recovery of the electric vehicles and consumer markets, the company's production capacity utilization has been gradually increasing. In the first three quarters of this year, its new products such as SiC and 12-inch silicon wafers have been quickly introduced and mass-produced by head customers, driving rapid growth in revenue through the second growth curve composed of SiC MOSFET chips and modules production lines and the third growth curve in the analog IC direction mainly based on high-voltage, high-power BCD process. In the third quarter of this year, its gross margin was already positive at about 6% for the quarter.

Texas Instruments stated in its performance forecast that the tight situation in the semiconductor industry supply chain has gradually eased this year, with sufficient capacity in the industry supply chain. Simultaneously, the company has strengthened supply chain management, optimized costs, and increased gross margin year-on-year, leading to growth in gross profit and significant growth in net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses.

Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronics also mentioned that during the reporting period, with the moderate recovery of the semiconductor industry, the company has focused on the development direction of its main business, market-oriented and innovation-driven. Benefiting from factors such as the gradual recovery of downstream market application demands, product structure upgrades, and growing customer demands, in the first three quarters of 2024, its comprehensive production capacity has slightly increased, and the capacity utilization rate has been maintained at a relatively high level.

It is worth noting that the demand growth of core product lines and the significant sales volume of "star" explosive products have become key driving factors for many semiconductor companies to achieve growth this year.

SITW indicated in its performance forecast that in the first three quarters of this year, the company's newly launched iterative products in the smart security field have superior performance and competitiveness, leading to a significant increase in product sales and sales revenue. In the smart phone sector, the shipment volume of several high-end 50 million pixel products used in flagship smartphone main, wide-angle, telephoto, and front cameras has greatly increased. At the same time, the company's deepening collaboration with customers, meeting more application demands, continuously increasing market share, driving significant revenue growth in the smart phone sector, and successfully opening up a second growth curve.

Crystal-Formation Integration stated that the domestic substitution of CIS is accelerating in 2024. The company closely follows the development trends within and outside the industry, continuously adjusting and optimizing its product structure. Currently, the CIS production capacity is at full load, and subsequently, it will focus on expanding CIS production capacity based on customer demand. In the future, the company will enhance cooperation with strategic customers, accelerate the mass production of OLED products, and develop advanced products such as CIS.

Espressif Systems stated that its products have relatively long life cycle characteristics. In the first three quarters of this year, the performance of classic products has remained stable, while emerging product categories such as ESP32-S3, C2, and C3 are in a rapid growth stage, driving revenue growth. With the continuous enrichment of its product lines, the new product series with differentiated characteristics will further tap into new markets.

It is expected by semiconductor industry practitioners that the growth rate in the second half of the year may slow down.

Although so far, A-share semiconductor companies' performance in the first three quarters is overall optimistic, multiple interviewed semiconductor professionals expect that the performance growth rate of chip companies in the second half of the year may slow down compared to the first half of the year (especially in the second quarter of this year).

The person in charge of a consumer chip company in the science and technology innovation board in East China, in an interview with 'Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily,' said that the overall inventory digestion lasted approximately until September last year in the previous cycle industry, followed by a new round of stocking from the end of last year to this year. Especially in April and May this year, when the upstream wafer foundries and packaging and testing factories reported tight capacity, many chip companies and terminal manufacturers in the industry started stocking due to nervousness. "However, it is expected that there will not be overstocking and stampeding of the industry like the previous cycle."

The above-mentioned chip company executive said that since last year, the overall industry demand has been steadily recovering. However, taking mobile phone manufacturers as an example, the demand for advance stocking began to decline in May and June this year.

Another professional in a consumer chip company told the 'Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily' reporter that judging from the current market demand recovery situation, it may not be possible to support most chip companies to achieve similar performance growth rates in the third quarter of this year as in the first half of the year. (Editor's note: The previously mentioned 15 semiconductor companies announced the overall performance range for the first three quarters, and the majority of them are leaders in their respective fields.)

"The reason why most chip companies' performance growth in the first half of this year was good is not only due to the wave of increased stocking by downstream customers but also related to the enterprises' choice to expand against the market cycle last year. By forming partnerships with wafer foundries and packaging and testing factories, they receive more support on the supply chain cost end at the bottom of the cycle." The aforementioned consumer chip company executive said, however, that this year, wafer foundries are under tight capacity and generally increasing prices, so the market for mid-to-high-end chips might still be good in the second half of the year.

An industry professional from a chip company in Beijing also told the 'Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily' reporter that chip manufacturers in the first half of the year generally stocked up 'relatively aggressively.' The reasons include nearly depleting the raw materials inventory and the international situation affecting shipping. From the market demand perspective, there is a slight recovery, but not a significant increase. On the contrary, there is a trend of consumption downgrade. The growth rate of domestic chip companies in the third quarter may slow down, and it still needs to be observed whether there will be a further decline in the fourth quarter.

"Currently, the industry as a whole has entered the bottom of the price reduction period; from the perspective of the upstream supply chain, due to the cost increase since the second quarter and the rising trend, while the prices at the downstream customer end have decreased to historic lows, squeezing each other, so it is expected that price reduction will not be the main theme next year, of course, some companies may strategically compete by lowering prices." The aforementioned industry professionals in the chip industry said.

In the latest research report released by Bocom Intl. today (October 16th), the viewpoint shows that the downstream hardware applications and semiconductor demand recovery are stable. However, the recovery in different areas shows differentiation: intelligent smartphone inventory continues to decrease, supply and demand are becoming more balanced by the day, and mainland companies have increased market share in the first half of the year; servers and personal computers benefit from the impact of online demand for AI, and the industry has further warmed up in the first half of this year; while the inventory levels of communication equipment, automobiles, and industrial sectors are still at a high level in the last four years, indicating that the industry may still be at the bottom of the cycle.