In the afternoon trading on the 16th, the following three points should be noted:

・The Nikkei average fell for the first time in 5 days, with semiconductor stocks plummeting due to the ASML shock.

・The dollar-yen rate is weak, fueled by the decline in US interest rates and the Japanese stock market.

・Top contributors to the decline were Tokyo Electron <8035> and the second was Softbank G <9984>.

■ The Nikkei average fell for the first time in 5 days, with semiconductor stocks plummeting due to the ASML shock

The Nikkei Average fell for the fifth consecutive day, closing the morning session at 39,093.46 yen (down 817.09 yen, -2.05% from the previous day) with an estimated volume of 0.8 billion shares.

The U.S. stock market fell on the 15th. The Dow Jones fell 324.80 points to 42,740.42, while the Nasdaq closed at 18,315.59, down 187.10 points. Banking earnings were well received, leading to an initial rise after the opening. Subsequently, a drop in the semiconductor sector led to a market decline. The decline in UnitedHealth Group, a managed healthcare company, also weighed on the Dow, causing major indexes to expand losses and close lower towards the end.

Due to sluggish orders and downward revisions in performance outlook for ASML Holding, semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX Index) fell by over 4% and 5% respectively, affecting the Tokyo market as trading started with a predominance of selling pressure on semiconductor stocks. After the opening, the Nikkei Average was sold off to just below 39,000 yen levels, but factors such as the exchange rate remaining around the 149 yen per dollar level provided support, resulting in a slowing decline.

Among Nikkei average constituent stocks, Laser Tech <6920>, Tokyo Electron <8035>, Screen HD <7735> saw significant declines of about 10% from the previous day, while semiconductor stocks like Disco <6146>, Socionext <6526>, Renesas Electronics <6723> stood out for their declines. Additionally, a sharp deterioration with August machinery orders falling significantly year-on-year and month-on-month led to selling pressure on machinery stocks such as Yasukawa Electric <6506>, SMC <6273>, NSK Ltd. <6471>, Omron <6645>, Fanuc <6954>, Nidec <6594>.

On the other hand, Taisei Corporation <1801>, Obayashi Corporation <1802> both benefited from domestic securities companies upgrading their ratings, leading to prevailing buying sentiment. Large construction stocks like Shimizu Corporation <1803>, Kajima Corporation <1812> also overall remained firm. In addition, Tokyo Tatemono <8804>, Sumitomo Realty <8830>, Tokyu Fudosan HD <3289>, Mitsui Fudosan <8801> and other real estate stocks were also bought.

By industry, precision instruments, electric appliances, machinery, chemicals, glass & stone products declined, while real estate, insurance, construction, electricity & gas, and banking sectors rose.

Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Set Toru Adachi, at the Kagawa Prefecture Financial Affairs Consultative Council, mentioned regarding price conditions that with the favorable cycle of wages and prices, the path so far has been on track. He discussed the rising 'elastic consumer price' of products with frequent price revisions and the 'sticky consumer price' of services with infrequent price revisions showing continued growth, indicating a potential increase in prices.

On the other hand, expressing caution about future price movements, in the event of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle leading to increased correction of yen depreciation, he commented that this could act as a downward pressure on import prices, ultimately resulting in a reduction in 'elastic consumer prices' centered on goods prices. Regarding wage increases, he pointed out that they are being implemented within the scope of 'business performance expansion,' and highlighted the uncertainty in wage increase trends beyond next year, depending on company performance and subsequently economic conditions.

As no particularly assertive remarks were observed, the impact on the foreign exchange market was limited. The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index during lunchtime also showed slight moves in negative territory compared to the previous day, with no significant developments. The afternoon session in the Tokyo market is expected to see a quiet struggle around the 39,000 yen level. It is worth noting that a press conference by Commissioner Adachi will be held at 14:30, but based on the content of the morning lecture, it is likely to remain within expected statements and may not provide any significant clues.

The dollar-yen is weak, with a focus on the decline in US interest rates and the fall in Japanese stocks.

In the morning of the 16th, in the Tokyo market, the dollar-yen was in a weak tone, falling from 149.33 yen to 148.86 yen. Dollar selling took the lead due to the decline in the US 10-year bond yields, causing a drop to around 149 yen. Subsequently, due to the significant decline in the Nikkei Average stock prices, there was a risk-averse yen buying sentiment, leading to a temporary drop to the lower 148 yen levels.

The trading ranges so far are 148.86 yen to 149.33 yen for USD/JPY, 162.12 yen to 162.57 yen for EUR/JPY, and 1.0882 dollars to 1.0894 dollars for EUR/USD.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

Four stocks, including JESCO Holdings <1434> and Sailor Advertisement <2156>, hit the daily limit up.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

Tokyo Electron <8035> was the top contributor to the decline, with SoftBank Group <9984> in second place.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

NZ CPI for the July-September quarter: +2.2% year-on-year (Forecast: +2.2%, April-June quarter: +3.3% year-on-year)

・Machinery orders in August, excluding ships and electricity (domestic demand): -1.9% month-on-month (forecast: +0.1%, July: -0.1%)

[Important Person's Remarks]

Member of the Adachi Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee

"The conditions for entering the financial normalization process have already been met."

"Until the sustainable and stable realization of the target, policy interest rates will be raised at an extremely slow pace."

"There is currently no need to implement a rapid rate hike for inflation control."

"There is a possibility of a stronger movement in correcting the situation of yen depreciation."

Not applicable.

At 15:00, the UK Consumer Price Index for September (MoM forecast: +1.9%, August: +2.2%).

At 15:00, the UK Producer Price Index Output for September (YoY forecast: -0.6%, August: +0.2%).