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Will New Projects Rescue Private Residential Market From Sliding to Historic Lows?

Will New Projects Rescue Private Residential Market From Sliding to Historic Lows?

新項目能否拯救私人住宅市場免於滑向歷史低點?

In September, sales soared by 90% QoQ with one sales launch.

九月份,隨着一個銷售推出,銷售額環比增長了90%。

After months of sluggish performance, real estate experts predict the private residential market could rebound just before the year ends.

經過幾個月的低迷表現,房地產業專家預測,在年底前,私人住宅市場可能會出現反彈。

"Transaction momentum of new sales could pick up before the holiday season at the end of the year," Knight Frank said.

「在年底節日期間,新銷售的交易勢頭可能會增加,」 Knight Frank表示。

JLL, for its part, said it is cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year.

至於JLL,表示對今年餘下時間持謹慎樂觀態度。

"Despite an overhang of cooling measures and buyer hesitancy, we anticipate an improvement in sentiment and sales volume," JLL said.

「儘管存在降溫措施和購房者猶豫不決的障礙,我們預計情緒和銷售量會有所改善,」 JLL表示。

Meanwhile, CBRE expects sales to rebound in Q4, stating that "there are indications of a recovery in sentiment following September's rate cut."

與此同時,CBRE預計銷售額將在第四季度反彈,稱「有跡象顯示隨着九月份的利率下調,情緒正在恢復。」

September's rate cut, alongside better economic news, helped boost buyer's confidence and new home sales in September, said Huttons.

Huttons表示,九月份的利率下調,加之更好的經濟新聞,有助於提振購房者信心和九月份的新房銷售。

"The announcement of a 50-basis point interest rate cut in September 2024 by the US central bank could prove to be the shot-in-the-arm needed to move the private residential market," Knight Frank said,

「2024年美國央行在九月份宣佈50個點子的利率削減可能會成爲推動私人住宅市場發展所需的刺激措施,」 Knight Frank表示。

"The larger-than-expected interest rate cut on 18 September may have also lifted buyer sentiment, drawing in previously hesitant buyers now emboldened by potentially more favourable financing conditions," JLL added.

9月18日意外減息可能會提振購房者情緒,吸引了之前猶豫不決的買家,他們現在得到更有利的融資條件,JLL補充道。

In September, new home sales, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), soared 90% QoQ MoM to 401 units, despite only having one mid-sized project launch during the month,

9月份,除了執行共管公寓(ECs)外,新房銷售量環比激增90%,達到401套,儘管當月僅有一箇中型項目推出。

"Home buyers seem more optimistic after last month's interest rate cuts. There was a notable resurgence of buyers in the market, especially after the conclusion of the lunar ghost month," OrangeTee said.

根據OrangeTee的說法,上個月的減息後,購房者似乎更加樂觀。市場上購房者明顯回升,尤其是在農曆鬼月結束後。

According to OrangeTee, there was a widespread uptick in sales volume last month across various previously launched projects.

OrangeTee表示,上個月各個之前推出的項目銷量普遍上升。

With buyers returning to pick up units at previously launched projects and a varied pipeline of new launches to come, PropNex is "optimistic that developers' sales could finish the year on a brighter note compared with the sluggish performance we observed earlier in 2024."

隨着購房者重返之前推出的項目並且多樣化的新項目即將推出,PropNex「樂觀地認爲開發商的銷售有望在年底結束時有所改善,相比我們前幾年觀察到的低迷表現。」

OrangeTee echoed this saying the increase in new home supply in the final quarter of this year will bolster housing demand.

OrangeTee也表示,今年最後一個季度新房供應的增加將支撐住房需求。

Projects to be launched in the last quarter of the year include Norwood Grand, The Chuan Park, Arina East Residences, Nava Grove, Emerald of Katong, and Union Square Residences.

計劃在今年最後一個季度推出的項目包括Norwood Grand、The Chuan Park、Arina East Residences、Nava Grove、翡翠閣、Union Square Residences。

|Many of these projects are situated in the suburbs, providing more affordable housing options for home buyers. These developments are expected to be especially attractive to HDB upgraders, particularly those who have recently sold their flats at high prices," OrangeTee.

這些項目中很多位於郊區,爲購房者提供了更多負擔得起的住房選擇。這些發展項目預計將特別吸引HDB升級換房者,尤其是那些最近以高價出售了他們的組屋的人們,"OrangeTee表示。

While experts are optimistic about the market's performance for the remainder of the year, CBRE and Knight said 2024 could see the lowest annual new sales since 2008 when 4,264 new homes exchanged hands.

儘管專家對今年餘下部分的市場表現持樂觀態度,CBRE和Knight表示,2024年可能會見到自2008年以來最低的年度新房銷售成交量,當時有4,264套新房換手。

JLL said September year-to-date, new home sales reached 3,077, a 42.3% YoY drop, falling 20.0% below the previous historical low of 3,845 units recorded in the same period of 2008 during the global financial crisis (GFC).

JLL表示,截至9月底的全年,新房銷售量已達到3,077套,同比下降42.3%,低於2008年同期全球金融危機(GFC)期間記錄的3,845套的歷史最低水平下降20.0%。

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