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What Tian Cheng Holdings Limited's (HKG:2110) 68% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 17 06:43

Tian Cheng Holdings Limited (HKG:2110) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 68% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 31% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Tian Cheng Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Construction industry is similar at about 0.3x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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SEHK:2110 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 16th 2024

How Has Tian Cheng Holdings Performed Recently?

Revenue has risen firmly for Tian Cheng Holdings recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to wane, which has kept the P/S from rising. Those who are bullish on Tian Cheng Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Tian Cheng Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Tian Cheng Holdings?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Tian Cheng Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 13%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 35% overall drop in revenue. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 10% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Tian Cheng Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What Does Tian Cheng Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Tian Cheng Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We find it unexpected that Tian Cheng Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Tian Cheng Holdings (at least 3 which don't sit too well with us), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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