Is the market developing steadily due to sluggish trading?

This week, the emerging markets dropped. The rate of rise and fall during the same period was -1.58% for the Nikkei Average, -2.11% for the Growth Market Index, and -2.32% for the Growth Market 250 Index, highlighting the weakness of the Growth Market. Trading volume has fallen below 100 billion yen for 5 consecutive business days, with 83.5 billion yen on the 18th marking the lowest level since May 9th (79.8 billion yen). The Growth Market 250 Index continued to leave negative lines for 6 consecutive business days, similar to the Main Board market, as buying pressure remained low due to factors like investor sentiment decline.

Among the top market capitalization stocks, Timey <215A> showed weak movement by setting a new low since listing for consecutive days. Additionally, Free <4478> became more inclined towards selling, while TKP <3479> faced selling pressure due to disappointing earnings. On the other hand, GENDA <9166>, which had been falling for 6 consecutive business days until the 16th, finally rebounded, and GMO Financial Gate <4051> remained firm throughout the week. In other stocks, short-term funds flocked to Altz <260A>, which was listed on the 11th and saw a sharp rise, but profit-taking pressure pushed it down over the weekend. It is worth noting that in the Standard Market, Nisui Con <261A> and Inter Mestic <262A> were listed. Nisui Con's first price was 6.2% below the offering price at 1341 yen, while Inter Mestic's first price was 25.0% higher than the offering price at 2038 yen.

Is short-term funding heading towards recent IPO stocks?

The next week's emerging markets are expected to continue to show weak movements centered around major stocks due to ongoing sluggish trading. The Growth Market 250 Index remains deviated downward from the 75-day moving average, indicating a weak trend. Without significant movements like a selling climax, it is difficult to target pullbacks. In thin trading where the trading volume falls below 100 billion yen, stable funds are unlikely to enter major stocks, suggesting a continued steady but weak market development.

Next week, Shinwa Holdings <7118> will be listed on Ambitious on the 21st, Schoo <264A> on Growth on the 22nd, Tokyo Metro <9023> on Prime on the 23rd, and Ligac Holdings <268A> on Prime on the 25th. The market is highly focused on the listing of Tokyo Metro, which is equivalent to 320 billion yen in public offering and 640 billion yen in market capitalization. This is a highly anticipated listing similar to SoftBank <9434> in 2018, a mega IPO since the listing of the 3 Japan Post companies in 2015, with the government selling its shares, raising significant interest. If there is a positive price formation and subsequent movement confirmation, investor sentiment may improve slightly.

If the initial public offering of Tokyo Metro is solid, the market is expected to see short-term funding heading towards recent IPO stocks in the Growth Market, even though Altz is likely to continue to fluctuate, Growth X Partners <244A> which is setting new all-time highs since listing can be expected to show strong movement. On the other hand, for stocks like Kids Star <248A> that are setting new lows since listing, it may be worth aiming for a rebound.