高盛分析指出，Goldman Sachs pointed out that in September, the retail sales of household appliances increased by more than 20% year-on-year, with offline average selling prices increasing by 5-17% year-on-year, showing a situation of "rising volume and price." With Singles' Day sales approaching, it is expected that the household appliance industry will experience further growth in Q4.
Benefiting from the stimulus of the trade-in policy, in September, the Chinese appliance market showed significant signs of recovery.
According to the latest research report released by Goldman Sachs, the retail sales of household appliances in September increased by over 20% year-on-year, far exceeding the 3% in August. White appliances, kitchen appliances, and siasun robot&automation have become the main drivers of this growth, reflecting consumers' strong demand for upgraded household products.
Goldman Sachs analysis pointed out that the recovery of the appliance market is not only reflected in the increase in sales volume, but also in a significant increase in the average selling price of products. In September, the offline average selling prices of white appliances and large kitchen appliances increased by 5-17% year-on-year, showing a "rise in both quantity and price" situation.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects this strong momentum to accelerate in the fourth quarter, especially during the "singles' day sales" period. Existing production plans are expected to be adjusted upwards.
Significant growth in appliance retail sales, with air conditioner shipments rebounding.
The performance of the appliance industry in September was remarkable, especially under the government's vigorously promoted 'trade-in' policy, with appliance retail sales increasing by over 20% year-on-year.
Among them, the performance of air conditioners was particularly outstanding. The Goldman Sachs report pointed out that air conditioner shipments in September increased by 7% year-on-year, reversing the 5% decline in shipments in August. The strong demand recovery far exceeded the earlier production plans.
The shipments of washing machines and refrigerators increased by 13% and 10% in August respectively, showing a month-on-month improvement.
In terms of channels, offline sales performed particularly strongly, surpassing the growth rate of online channels.
The report points out that, benefiting from the stimulus measures for trade-in programs, the average selling price of household appliances saw a significant increase in September, especially for white appliances, kitchen appliances, and RVC. In September, the offline average selling prices of white appliances and large kitchen appliances increased by 5-17% year-on-year.
We believe that this may be due to an improvement in product structure, as under the stimulus of trade-in subsidies, consumers can purchase better products without increasing their budget.
However, the report also mentions that the growth rates of small appliances and projectors are relatively lagging behind. Overall, the home appliance industry is showing a trend of month-on-month improvement in all categories.
The export market growth rate has slowed down, but air conditioners and floor cleaning robots have shown outstanding export performance.
While the domestic market is experiencing a strong recovery, the export performance of household appliances remains relatively stable.
According to Goldman Sachs' report, the growth rate of household appliance exports in September slightly slowed down and was lower than August, but still remained at a high level.
Specifically, compared to August, with year-on-year growth rates of 12% and 18%, in September, the growth rates of household appliances export volume and export value slowed to mid-single-digit percentage growth.
However, the export of air conditioners once again exceeded market expectations, growing by 40% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to 32% in August.
The demand for sweeping robots in overseas markets continues to show strong growth. The report pointed out that in September, the sales of Chinese sweeping robots in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region significantly increased, with Beijing Roborock Technology's overseas performance particularly outstanding. Goldman Sachs stated:
Beijing Roborock Technology's sales in the USA market increased by 35% year-on-year, with a market share of 20%, making it the number one RVC manufacturer on Amazon USA. In contrast, local European and American brands like iRobot saw a 11% year-on-year drop in sales in September.
The outlook for Q4 is optimistic, and Singles' Day sales will further boost demand.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects further growth in the household appliance market in the fourth quarter driven by the continued promotion of the 'trade-in old for new' policy. There are two main reasons:
Firstly, retail data in October showed a positive trend, and the upcoming Singles' Day shopping festival could be a key point for household appliance sales. With promotional activities during this period and further release of consumer demand, the household appliance market is expected to continue to operate at a high level in the fourth quarter.
Secondly, with retail growth in the third quarter outpacing factory output, inventory levels in the household appliance industry's channels have gradually decreased. This means that household appliance manufacturers may adjust production plans in the coming months to further increase output to meet market demand.
