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以旧换新补贴之下 家电行业Q3增长预期强!双11成业绩爆发新起点

Driven by the subsidy for trading in old appliances, the home appliance industry is expected to show strong growth in Q3! november 11 shopping festival-related has become a new starting point for explosive performance.

cls.cn ·  Oct 21 10:46

①Under the policy of trading in old products for new ones in the consumer goods industry, in the first three quarters, the monthly retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment of units above the limit in September increased by 20.5%, a significant acceleration of 17.1 percentage points compared to August, with the growth rate of smart home appliances exceeding 30%. ②On the other hand, the true 'peak season' for appliance subsidies is the Double 11 promotion driven by e-commerce platforms.

Caifubao News|New Consumer Daily October 21st report (researcher Liang Youyun), household appliance consumption is entering the peak season.

In the past week, major e-commerce platforms have launched the Double 11 promotion, and A-share black appliances and white appliances sectors have benefited from year-end promotions, national trade-in subsidies, with the overall industry stock prices showing a steady upward trend. Among them, Sichuan Changhong saw four consecutive trading days with four intraday limit up occurrences.

According to official statistics, under the policy of trading in old products for new ones in the consumer goods industry, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment of units above the limit increased by 4.4% year-on-year. Among them, the above-mentioned categories' monthly retail sales in September increased by 20.5%, a significant acceleration of 17.1 percentage points compared to August, with the growth rate of smart home appliances exceeding 30%.

As of October 15th, the national appliance trade-in applications and purchases reached 20.667 million people. Among them, 10.134 million people placed orders to purchase a total of 14.624 million units of eight major categories of appliances within the subsidy range, enjoying a subsidy of 13.17 billion yuan, driving sales of 69.09 billion yuan.

Currently, e-commerce platforms are responding actively. According to the latest data provided by Tmall, on the evening of October 21st at 8 pm, after the official start of sales for Tmall's Double 11, combined with government subsidies, more than 90 categories including small appliances, smart home products, and furniture are eligible for Tmall Double 11 discounts, driving a significant increase in related categories. In the first hour of Double 11 sales, nearly 20 home appliance and home furnishing brands such as Haier, Midea, Little Swan, Dyson, Ecovacs, Xilinmen, Lin's Furniture, Quanyou, and Modern Age quickly exceeded one billion in sales, with 224 brands such as Midea, Oppein, and Atour Lifestyle Holdings reaching last year's total sales in the first hour. A new trend of 25 product categories that surpassed a billion in sales emerged, including kitchen refrigerators, floor sweeping robots, smart door locks, floor scrubbers, coffee machines, and rock board dining tables.

Subsidies further stimulate local appliance consumption and upgrade enthusiasm

This round of appliance trade-ins not only has central subsidies, but many provinces and cities have also opted to increase subsidies, further stimulating local appliance consumption and upgrade enthusiasm.

In many economically developed provinces, there have been broader subsidy ranges provided for the consumption upgrade of household appliances and new demands for quality living. For example, in Shanghai, in addition to the national subsidies for the eight major types of household appliances, subsidies are provided for dishwashers, dryers, floor sweeping robots, air purifiers, sofas, cabinets, and other appliances, home furnishings, household and elderly-friendly products, amounting to 15% of the sales price.

Jiangsu Province, on the basis of national subsidies, has added dryers, floor sweeping robots, floor washing machines, vacuum cleaners, disinfection cabinets, steam ovens (including electric steam ovens, electric ovens, steam oven combos), and garment steamers to the list of 7 categories of smart home appliances, providing a direct subsidy of 15% of the fill price (after merchant discounts), with each subsidy not exceeding 2000 yuan and a total subsidy not exceeding 14000 yuan.

After the release of the September household appliance subsidy policy, it temporarily drove a rapid increase in the scale of household appliance consumption during the National Day.

Data shows that during the National Day period, Suning's nationwide store traffic increased by over 200% year-on-year, and orders for trade-ins increased by 132% year-on-year. Among them, the rapid growth of replacement consumption in the large household appliance categories covered by the national subsidies, such as upright air conditioners, ultra-thin cooker hoods, and built-in refrigerators, saw sales increase by 85%, 113%, and 271% year-on-year.

Emerging household appliances subsidized in some regions also achieved good growth. During Suning's National Day period, sales of Ecovacs Robotics floor sweeping robots increased by 171% year-on-year, while sales of Fotile dishwashers, Haier washer-dryers increased by 162%, 87% year-on-year.

According to AVC Cloud data, from August 26th to October 6th, the seven major categories of focus for trading in old for new goods saw online market retail volume, retail sales, and average prices increase by 32.1%, 39.5%, 5.6% year-on-year respectively, while offline market retail volume, retail sales, and average prices increased by 30.7%, 44.5%, 8.9% year-on-year respectively.

E-commerce platforms are actively responding.

Compared to the growth in orders driven by the holiday foot traffic of offline appliance stores, the true peak consumption season for appliance subsidies lies in the November 11 shopping festival promotions led by e-commerce platforms.

Data shows that after the Tmall presale opened, the first-hour platform's large appliance transactions skyrocketed by 765% compared to the first day of last year. Brands like Haier, Midea, Little Swan quickly exceeded one billion in transactions, with Haier ultra-thin refrigerators, Hisense televisions, Midea energy-saving air conditioners, Panasonic white moonlight washing and drying sets, and other products quickly exceeding tens of millions in transactions.

Data from Kuaishou's e-commerce platform also shows that on October 19, the platform officially kicked off the November 11 shopping festival, with over 1.3 million users participating in the 'old for new' national subsidy coupon on the first day, and GMV increasing by 670% compared to June 18 of this year. Brands like TCL, Hisense, Oppe achieved brand GMV exceeding one billion with the help of national subsidies. TCL GMV increased 44 times year-on-year, Hisense GMV increased 12 times year-on-year, Oppe GMV increased over 100 times year-on-year.

"Consumers are increasingly valuing the intelligence, portability, sense of technology, and personalized design of kitchen and bathroom appliances, no longer just satisfied with basic functions. We also hope to bring good products, good prices, and good services to more consumers through this event, and drive a new round of platform sales growth." A relevant person from Vipshop said that to seize this bullish opportunity, the platform will also distribute a total of 50 million yuan worth of kitchen and bathroom appliance consumption coupons during the November 11 big promotion.

Due to the early start of this year's November 11 promotion, about a week ahead, and the close connection with the additional home appliance subsidy announcements by many provinces and cities, as well as the end of the National Day holiday, the straightforward price reductions without any tricks have impressed many consumers. Therefore, some people jokingly suggest that the government is directly involved in this year's home appliance November 11 event.

GTJA research reports indicate that the weak performance of domestic home appliance retail in July and August this year was reversed in September due to the effective boost from the 'old for new' policy. In terms of categories, white appliances are the most stable, and directly benefit significantly from policy stimulation, while the black appliance sector also benefits from the 'old for new' policy. Overall, both online and offline sales in Q3 have returned to a clear positive growth trend. With concentrated policy efforts, the performance of high-quality home appliance companies in Q4 this year may exceed expectations.

Research from HZCHANNEL shows that from the perspective of product structure, policies have effectively promoted the sales of high-end, intelligent products, and the average unit price of different brands has significantly increased (reverted back to the pre-subsidy price). Currently, the overall policy-driven effect slightly exceeds expectations, with top brands of high-end white smart appliances expected to benefit the most, followed by the black appliance category.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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