国内消費の活発化やインバウンド需要の継続などを背景として、各カテゴリーが好調に推移するとともに、M&Aによる上乗せ分が増収に寄与する。Performance outlook for Create Restaurants Holdings <3387>
1. Performance forecast for the fiscal year ending February 2025
Regarding the performance forecast for the fiscal year ending February 2025, the company has revised its sales revenue forecast upwards, taking into account the impact of M&A (profit forecast remains unchanged). After the revision, they expect sales revenue to increase by 7.0% year-on-year to 156,000 million yen (an increase of 3,000 million yen from the revision), operating profit to increase by 31.4% to 9,300 million yen, pre-tax profit to increase by 31.2% to 8,700 million yen, and net income attributable to owners of the parent company to increase by 21.0% to 6,100 million yen.
Against the backdrop of the revitalization of domestic consumption and the continued demand from inbound visitors, each category is performing well, and the additional contribution from M&A is expected to contribute to revenue growth.
On the profit and loss side, despite the challenging revenue environment (such as high raw material prices, labor cost increases due to labor shortages, and soaring utility costs such as electricity and gas), the company anticipates significant profit growth due to the continued growth in sales revenue, cost control, and the successful transition to a muscular cost structure. The reason for maintaining the profit forecast unchanged despite the upward revision of the sales revenue forecast is mainly due to the conservative view on PMI costs (system-related expenses, etc.) related to M&A targets.
2. Points to watch in the future
While vigilance is still required due to the uncertain economic environment, the fact that existing stores are growing steadily and the progress in transitioning to a muscular cost structure leads to a reasonable expectation for the company's performance forecast. Considering that both M&As have a stable revenue base (additional revenue of 3 billion yen, unchanged profit), it may not be a difficult assumption. As for the financial impact of M&As, a wait is needed for the third quarter financial results (balance sheet at the end of November 2024), but we consider it limited based on the scale of the acquisition amount (meaning that there is sufficient capacity for additional M&A). The focus going forward will be on creating synergies through M&As, strengthening the focus on contract business, and nurturing core elements to enhance growth (portfolio strengthening) in the upcoming years.
(Written by Fisco Guest Analyst Ikuo Shibata)
