中信建投指出，乳业是政策刺激板块之一，节前乳制品受到一系列政策扶持，包括鼓励有条件的地方通过发放消费券等方式，拉动牛奶消费。预计Q3各乳业基本面在企稳的基础上有望出现改善。此外，从成本来看，今年原奶成本基本在低位运行，生鲜乳同比基本保持两位数降幅，饲料中，如玉米价格，也有所下降，养殖成本有所改善，对乳企而言成本压力减小。Dairy stocks had the highest gains. As of press release, China's Feihe (06186) rose 5.21% to HK$5.86; Youran Dairy (09858) rose 3.85% to HK$1.35; Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose 3.27% to HK$16.44; and Ausu (01717) rose 2.02% to HK$2.02.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that dairy stocks had the highest gains. As of press release, China's Feihe (06186) rose 5.21% to HK$5.86; Youran Dairy (09858) rose 3.85% to HK$1.35; Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose 3.27% to HK$16.44; and Ausu (01717) rose 2.02% to HK$2.02.
According to GF Securities, raw milk has been in a downward cycle since 2024, and the oversupply situation continues. In the first half of the year, leading dairy companies pushed for inventory removal, and there was a lot of pressure on the reporting side. Since Q3, as channel inventories have gradually become healthier, combined with preparations for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day to stimulate sales, dairy companies' deliveries are expected to improve month-on-month compared to Q2, and the decline in revenue may narrow. According to the offline channel sales performance of immediate win monitoring, the overall decline in dairy sales narrowed from July to August compared to the previous month. Since September, the Ministry of Agriculture and all provinces and cities have increased their support for the dairy industry policy.
CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the dairy industry is one of the policy stimulus sectors. Dairy products received a series of policy support before the holiday season, including encouraging places that are in a position to do so to boost milk consumption by issuing consumer vouchers, etc. It is expected that the fundamentals of the various dairy industries will improve on a stable basis in Q3. Furthermore, in terms of cost, the cost of raw milk has basically been running low this year. Fresh milk has basically maintained a double-digit decline over the same period last year. Prices of feed, such as corn, have also declined, farming costs have improved, and the cost pressure on dairy companies has decreased.