What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Trade Desk, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.12 = US$305m ÷ (US$5.2b - US$2.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Therefore, Trade Desk has an ROCE of 12%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 10% generated by the Media industry.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Trade Desk compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Trade Desk .

The Trend Of ROCE

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Trade Desk, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 12% from 19% five years ago. However, given capital employed and revenue have both increased it appears that the business is currently pursuing growth, at the consequence of short term returns. If these investments prove successful, this can bode very well for long term stock performance.

Another thing to note, Trade Desk has a high ratio of current liabilities to total assets of 49%. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.

Our Take On Trade Desk's ROCE

In summary, despite lower returns in the short term, we're encouraged to see that Trade Desk is reinvesting for growth and has higher sales as a result. And the stock has done incredibly well with a 463% return over the last five years, so long term investors are no doubt ecstatic with that result. So should these growth trends continue, we'd be optimistic on the stock going forward.

On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for Trade Desk that we think you should be aware of.

While Trade Desk isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.