Track the entire lifecycle of the main sector.
Summary: ① With the intensification of internal technological divergences, the market is once again seeing a 'fan' style rotational trend; ② Semiconductors continue to be the core of this round of rebound. Although the short-term has entered another phase of rising and correcting, one can still pay attention to buying opportunities as long as the trend is not disrupted; ③ Yesterday, HarmonyOS was officially launched, but due to the full speculative activity of HarmonyOS concept stocks in the past, one should be cautious of the risk of realizing gains after the good news; ④ During technology's main divergences, the new energy track may potentially serve as a transitional direction to reap the benefits.
Although the three major indexes closed in the green yesterday, the gains were relatively small. Some high-level thematic directions began to release negative effects, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 7%, and hot topics such as short video, HarmonyOS, and semiconductors entering into a consolidation phase. On the other hand, the market yesterday once again adopted a 'fan' style rotational pattern. It can be observed that with the intensification of divergences in technology stocks, the short-term market has entered a more chaotic phase, with funds fighting independently but failing to determine a new direction.
If we consider the volume surge on October 18th as the starting point of this cycle, semiconductors are undoubtedly the current market's core focus. On one hand, core targets represented by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation resonate with the index, and on the other hand, emotional high stocks such as Tech Semiconductors and shanghai belling corp.,ltd. continuously expand the sector heights. However, due to the rapid rise of the sector before, semiconductors have once again entered a phase of rising and correcting. Moreover, the announcement by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation as the core target last night, of reducing holdings of 1.2465 million shares of the company's domestic stocks by E Fund Management Co., Ltd. Five-Year Closed-End Shanghai Stock Exchange Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF, may once again pressure short-term market sentiment. But as long as the fundamental upward trend of individual stocks remains intact, one can still seize opportunities to buy on dips during short-term divergent corrections.
Furthermore, it is important to note that HarmonyOS officially landed last night, and Huawei's native HarmonyOS operating system was officially released. This release of native HarmonyOS achieved complete self-research of the system base, significantly improving system fluency, performance, security features, etc. However, after an extended period of speculative activity in HarmonyOS concept stocks, the expectations for HarmonyOS concepts are already well interpreted. From the final stages yesterday, it can be seen that some funds have already begun to seize opportunities. Today, we still need to pay attention to the risk of concentration on realizing gains after the positive news, especially for the software and creative sector represented by HarmonyOS.
In addition, the recent trend in the new energy sector continues to heat up, with activities in photovoltaic and wind power during trading hours. Fundamentally, on October 18th, the Photovoltaic Industry Association released an announcement via its official WeChat account titled 'Current Analysis of Photovoltaic Module Costs: Winning Bids Below Cost Violate Laws,' at the same time, calculating the lowest tax-inclusive cost of photovoltaic modules for October 2024: 0.68 yuan/W, which is expected to effectively curb the industry's vicious competition. As for the wind power sector, the bidding volume this year has significantly increased, with the total annual bidding volume expected to exceed 130GW, doubling from the previous year. Furthermore, next year's installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. Essentially, this still falls under the speculative anticipation of industry difficulties being reversed. From a market perspective, during the consolidation of diverging technology trends, the new energy track may serve as a transitional direction to capture localized profitability in the market, and related stocks may see a phase of recovery.