With rising geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve shifting toward rate cuts, 2024 is shaping up to be gold's best year in over four decades, reigniting strong investor demand for the precious metal.
Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), has surged 33% year-to-date as of Oct. 22, positioning it for its strongest year since 1979, when it spiked 136%.
In stark contrast, U.S. long-dated Treasury bonds are suffering. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) is down 6.7% for 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of losses and a steep 48% drop since its 2020 highs.
Sell Bonds, Buy Gold?
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, has been urging investors to 'sell bonds, buy gold' since mid-August.
"Our Aug. 19, 2024 Morning Briefing was titled, 'Get Ready to Short Bonds?'" Yardeni said in a note on Monday, citing the Fed's overly optimistic rate-cut expectations at the time.
"Bond investors may be expecting too many interest-rate cuts too soon," he warned, predicting that yields would rebound sharply on stronger economic data.
Read Also: US Economy Eyes 3.4% Growth In Q3: Is Soft Landing Turning Into Reacceleration?
The expert's view was right. The 10-year Treasury yield, which stood at 3.88% in mid-August, has surged to 4.18% on Oct. 21— a 56-basis-point jump.
In his April 7 report, Yardeni advised investors to "add to precious metals positions," reiterating his long-standing view that gold remains a key investment hedge, especially as geopolitical risks rise.
His argument is simple: with bond markets vulnerable to rising yields and uncertainty over Fed policy, precious metals offer a safe haven for long-term investors.
Why Is Gold Rallying In 2024?
Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, but its recent surge has come despite easing inflation. Yardeni cited rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and heightened economic uncertainty as the main reasons for gold’s appeal.
With Russia's foreign reserves still frozen and global tensions on the rise, many nations are turning to gold as a secure store of value.
This "de-dollarization" trend is likely another catalyst behind the metal's sharp rise, as countries seek to diversify away from U.S.-denominated assets.
"Gold is now a hedge against U.S. economic sanctions," Yardeni said, referring to moves by China and other nations to increase their gold reserves as a safeguard against potential asset freezes.
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随着地缘政治紧张局势的加剧以及美联储转向降息,2024年将成为黄金四十多年来最好的一年,重新点燃了投资者对这种贵金属的强劲需求。
根据SPDR黄金信托基金(纽约证券交易所代码:GLD)的追踪,截至10月22日,黄金今年迄今已飙升33%,这是自1979年以来最强劲的一年,当时飙升了136%。
与之形成鲜明对比的是,美国长期国债正在遭受损失。iShares 20年期以上国债ETF(纳斯达克股票代码:TLT)在2024年下跌6.7%,这是连续第四年亏损,自2020年高点以来大幅下跌48%。
卖债券,买黄金?
华尔街资深投资者、Yardeni Research总裁埃德·亚尔德尼自8月中旬以来一直在敦促投资者 “卖出债券,买入黄金”。
“我们的2024年8月19日早间简报的标题是'准备好做空债券了吗?'”亚尔德尼在周一的一份报告中表示,理由是美联储当时的降息预期过于乐观。
他警告说:“债券投资者可能预计过早会有过多的降息。” 他预测,由于经济数据走强,收益率将大幅反弹。
另请阅读:美国经济预计第三季度增长3.4%:软着陆会变成重新加速吗?
专家的观点是正确的。10年期美国国债收益率在8月中旬为3.88%,在10月21日飙升至4.18%,上涨了56个基点。
亚尔德尼在4月7日的报告中建议投资者 “增加贵金属头寸”,重申了他长期以来的观点,即黄金仍然是关键的投资对冲工具,尤其是在地缘政治风险上升的情况下。
他的论点很简单:由于债券市场容易受到收益率上升和美联储政策不确定性的影响,贵金属为长期投资者提供了避风港。
为什么黄金在2024年上涨?
传统上,黄金被视为对冲通货膨胀的工具,但尽管通货膨胀有所缓和,但其最近的飙升还是出现了。亚尔代尼指出,地缘政治紧张局势加剧,特别是在俄乌冲突之后,以及经济不确定性的加剧是黄金吸引力的主要原因。
由于俄罗斯的外汇储备仍处于冻结状态,全球紧张局势加剧,许多国家正在将黄金作为安全的价值储存手段。
这种 “去美元化” 趋势可能是该金属急剧上涨背后的另一个催化剂,因为各国都在寻求从美国计价的资产中分散开来。
亚尔德尼说:“黄金现在是抵御美国经济制裁的对冲工具,” 他指的是中国和其他国家为增加黄金储备而采取的举措,以防潜在的资产冻结。
照片:Shutterstock