Shareholders of Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300395) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to CN¥46.97 following its latest quarterly results. Revenues were CN¥399m, 22% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of CN¥1.05 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass' five analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.75b in 2025. This would reflect a major 44% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 85% to CN¥1.29. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.33 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 7.6% to CN¥43.97, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥56.00 and the most bearish at CN¥34.51 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 34% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 23% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
