Guangxi Energy Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600310) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 37% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 32%.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, given about half the companies operating in China's Electric Utilities industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 1.5x, you may still consider Guangxi Energy as an attractive investment with its 0.8x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.
How Has Guangxi Energy Performed Recently?
With revenue that's retreating more than the industry's average of late, Guangxi Energy has been very sluggish. Perhaps the market isn't expecting future revenue performance to improve, which has kept the P/S suppressed. If you still like the company, you'd want its revenue trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Guangxi Energy will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
How Is Guangxi Energy's Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Guangxi Energy's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 60% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 58% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the sole analyst covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 47% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 7.7%, which paints a poor picture.
In light of this, it's understandable that Guangxi Energy's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.
The Bottom Line On Guangxi Energy's P/S
Despite Guangxi Energy's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
It's clear to see that Guangxi Energy maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast for sliding revenue, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Guangxi Energy (at least 2 which can't be ignored), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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