(Continuously updating...)

Rising US debt and deficit risks have forced the US government to issue a large amount of bonds in the tight funding market before the election. At the same time, the strong performance of the US economy, combined with weakening expectations for Fed rate cuts and market concerns over future rate cuts related to the 'Trumpflation', have caused the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise by 55 basis points in the past three weeks, reaching 4.26%, while the US dollar index also approached 104.6, hitting a three-month high. The rising US dollar and US Treasury yields have put pressure on European and American stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and non-US currencies.

Although the Fed's Beige Book showed a slight dovish tone on the economic situation during trading hours, the US economy is still slowing down, with inflation remaining modest. This led to a small recovery in US stocks, but failed to rescue the slump. The Nasdaq fell by more than 2% at one point, leading the decline.

In Europe, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that due to inflation falling faster than expected, the Bank of England may cut rates again in November, with further observation of the economic situation, and may also cut rates in December. If inflation continues to improve, the rate cut by the Bank of England could be 'more aggressive'. However, some policymakers are opposed to aggressive rate cuts, as they are concerned that tight labor market conditions may lead to inflationary pressure. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene is more inclined to lower rates in a 'cautious, gradual manner'.

Wednesday, October 23rd, US stocks all fell:

• US stocks dropped across the board. The S&P 500 index fell by 53.78 points, or 0.92%, to 5797.42 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, fell by 409.94 points, or 0.96%, to 42514.95 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by technology stocks, fell by 296.48 points, or 1.60%, to 18276.65 points. The Nasdaq 100 index fell by 1.55%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap-weighted index (NDXTMC) tracking the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks fell by 1.89%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, fell by 0.79%. The VIX fear index rose by 5.71% to 19.24.

• Most US industry ETFs closed lower. Utility ETFs rose by nearly 1%, global aviation ETFs rose by less than 0.5%. However, consumer discretionary ETFs, internet index ETFs, and global technology stock ETFs all fell by over 1.5%, technology industry ETFs, biotechnology index ETFs, and semiconductor ETFs each fell by at least 1%, energy sector ETFs and healthcare ETFs each fell by around 0.5%.

• The 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index declined more than they rose. The consumer discretionary sector fell by 1.82%, the information technology/technology sector fell by 1.68%, the telecommunications sector fell by 1.37%, the energy sector fell by 0.48%, the healthcare sector fell by 0.46%, the materials sector fell by 0.35%, the industrial sector fell by 0.30%, the consumer staples sector fell by 0.12%, the financial sector fell by 0.12%, the utilities sector rose by 1.01%, and the real estate sector rose by 1.02%.
• The 'Big Seven Sisters of Technology' all fell. Tesla closed down 1.98%, with a 9% increase in third-quarter EPS, Cybertruck turning a positive gross margin for the first time, and rising more than 9.7% after hours. Apple, after falling by over 3.4%, closed down by 2.16%. Reports indicate a significant reduction in Vision Pro headset production, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stating a decrease in iPhone 16 orders of around 10 million units. Nvidia closed down 2.81%, Amazon down 2.63%, Google down 1.43%, Meta (formerly known as Facebook) down 3.15%, and Microsoft down 0.68%.
• Most chip stocks declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 1.14% to 5131.37 points. The SOXX industry ETF fell by 0.89%; Nvidia's two times long ETF fell by 5.61%. AMD fell by 0.77%, Intel by 1.88%, Broadcom by 3.27%, Micron Technology by 2.57%, Applied Materials by 0.16%, KLA Corp by 0.81%, Qualcomm by 3.8%, Arm Holdings by 6.67%, ASML holding ADR by 1.7%, while Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose by 1.2% and ON Semiconductor rose by 2.15%.
• AI concept stocks collectively declined. BullFrog AI closed down 1.77%, SoundHound AI, in which Nvidia is a shareholder, fell by 5.5%, BigBear.ai fell by 6.43%, C3.ai fell by 3.17%, CrowdStrike fell by 2.99%, Dell Technologies fell by 0.76%, Snowflake fell by 1.64%, Super Micro Computer fell by 1.33%, Serve Robotics fell by 6.51%, Oracle fell by 1.26%, and Palantir fell by 0.82%.
• Most Chinese concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.2%. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 1.85%, the Chinese internet concept ETF (KWEB) fell by 1.38%, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 0.98%, the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) rose by 0.85%. The 'Chinese Dragon' ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) fell by 0.45%. The FTSE A50 index futures continued to fall by 0.68% in overnight trading, closing at 13565.000 points.
• Other key individual stocks: (1) McDonald's (MCD) closed down by 5.12%, leading the Dow component stocks lower. (2) Lam Research (LRCX) reported first-quarter adjusted EPS, revenue, and performance guidance higher than expected, rising more than 5.7% after hours. (3) Las Vegas Sands reported third-quarter revenue below expectations, announced a $2 billion share buyback, and rose by over 3.6% after declining by 2% in post-market trading. (4) Kaiser Aluminum reported third-quarter revenue of $0.748 billion, lower than analyst expectations, and expressed caution about the short-term outlook, falling by over 1.1% after hours. (5) IBM's third-quarter revenue of $14.97 billion fell short of analysts' expectations, dropping by over 7.6% after hours. (6) Most solar concept stocks fell, with SolarEdge down by 14.99% and photovoltaic inverter supplier Enphase Energy down by 14.92%.

The US dollar rose to its highest level since the end of July, with US EIA crude oil inventories increasing more than expected, putting pressure on oil prices. US oil slid more than 1.3%, ending two days of consecutive gains. Investors continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Despite Wednesday's oil price decline, US oil rose by over 2.2% this week:

• US Oil: WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.97, a 1.35% drop, at $70.77 per barrel. US oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with European stocks at their lowest falling by over 2.2%, putting pressure below $70.
• Crude oil: Brent crude oil futures for December fell by $1.08, a decrease of 1.42%, to $74.96 per barrel. Crude oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with European stocks falling more than 2.1% to pressure below $74.40.
• On the news front, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.474 million barrels last week, with Bloomberg users expecting an increase of 1.8 million barrels and analysts expecting an increase of 0.72867 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 2.191 million barrels the previous week. According to CCTV News, sources said that Israel is considering a two-week ceasefire with Hamas. The Israeli security cabinet has discussed this proposal, but has not yet approved it. It is currently unclear whether Hamas is willing to accept the ceasefire proposal. According to Xinhua News Agency, Hezbollah in Lebanon has stated on the 22nd that they will continue to attack Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the ongoing conflict, Hezbollah will not negotiate with Israel and attacks on Israel are increasing, causing 'significant losses' to the Israeli army. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong stated that it is expected that the ceasefire agreement may stall and the Middle East conflict could last longer.
• Natural gas: NYMEX November natural gas futures closed up 1.34% at $2.3420 per million British thermal units.

Supported by safe-haven demand triggered by the US election and tensions in the Middle East, spot gold approached $2,760 intraday, hitting a historical high for five consecutive days. Subsequently, the rise in the US dollar and US bond yields led to a reversal in the upward trend of precious metals. Spot gold dropped 1.2% in late trading, struggling to hold above $2,700, while spot silver fell over 3%, bidding farewell to its highest level in twelve years.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell by 1.09% to $2,729.70 per ounce at the close, rising to $2,772.60 per ounce intraday to hit a historical high, then quickly fell to a daily low of $2,722.10. In early European trading, spot gold rose more than 0.3% to $2,758.49, hitting a historical high, then sharply reversed. In early US trading, it fell nearly 1.5% to approach $2,700, ending the session down 1.21% at $2,715.82 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell by 3.28% at the close, to $33.890 per ounce. Spot silver maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with early US trading seeing a drop of nearly 4.1% to approach $33.40, ending the session down 3.32% at $33.6990 per ounce.

• Regarding the news, RJO Futures senior market strategist Haberkorn stated that due to some investors taking profits and the trend of rising US bond yields, the increase in the price of gold is limited. However, due to safe-haven demand, gold prices could rise to $2,800 per ounce this weekend. Both the US dollar index and US bond yields hovering near a three-month high have suppressed gold prices. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that due to uncertainty in the US election and increased US debt burden, they had to issue billions of dollars in bonds to the market, which is relatively thin and tense towards the election. Kinesis Money report indicates that the current gold/silver ratio is around 80, implying that as gold prices rise, silver tends to benefit as well.
• London industrial metals saw mixed movements: London copper fell by $62, a decrease of over 0.64%, to $9,522 per ton. London aluminum rose by $36, up more than 1.36%, to $2,670 per ton. London zinc rose by $6, to $3,144 per ton. London lead fell by $6, to $2,063 per ton. London nickel fell by $8, to $16,308 per ton. London tin fell by $1, to $30,906 per ton, while London cobalt remained flat at $24,300 per ton.
• COMEX copper futures fell by 1.08%, to $4.3330 per pound.

The following is the content updated before 22:00 on October 23 Beijing time.

The resilience of the US economy, coupled with risks from US debt and deficits, pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury up 3 basis points to 4.23%, reaching the highest level since July, putting pressure on US stocks.

On Wednesday, US stocks and bonds tumbled. The S&P fell for the third consecutive day, with component stocks such as McDonald's and Starbucks dragging the Dow down nearly 300 points.

• Major US stock indices all fell: the S&P 500 large cap index briefly dropped over 0.5%. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, fell nearly 0.7% or 299 points at one point. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by over 2% at one point. The Russell small cap index fell by over 0.6% at one point. The Nasdaq 100 fell by over 0.9% at one point.

• In early US trading, most major industry ETFs trended lower, with consumer discretionary ETFs and gold ETFs leading the declines.

• Most of the 'Tech Seven Sisters' declined. Nvidia fell by over 3.7% at one point, Apple dropped by nearly 0.9% at one point. Reports indicated that Apple's VR headset Vision Pro has significantly reduced production, and the current version may be discontinued entirely by the end of the year. Amazon fell by almost 1.4% at one point, Tesla initially rose by over 0.3% before falling by nearly 1.2%, Google Class A shares fell by over 0.7% at one point, 'Metaverse' Meta declined by nearly 1.1% at one point, while Microsoft rose by over 0.8% at one point.

• Chip stocks collectively declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 1% at one point, Nvidia's double-long ETF fell more than 7% at one point. Arm Holdings fell more than 6.4% at one point, Qualcomm fell more than 3.2% at one point, Micron Technology fell more than 2.7% at one point, ASML Holding ADR fell more than 2% at one point, AMD fell nearly 1.9% at one point, Broadcom fell nearly 1.7% at one point, Intel fell more than 1.2% at one point, while ON Semiconductor rose more than 4.7% at one point.

• AI concept stocks fluctuated. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, fell more than 4.9% at one point, BigBear.ai fell more than 3.5% at one point, C3.ai fell more than 2.6% at one point, CrowdStrike fell more than 2.4% at one point, Super Micro Computer fell more than 2% at one point, while Oracle rose more than 0.4% at one point, BullFrog AI rose more than 7.2% at one point, Serve Robotics rose more than 5.5% at one point.

• China concept stocks fell slightly. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially rose nearly 0.6% before falling nearly 0.7%. Among popular China concept stocks, New Oriental fell more than 8.5% at one point, Tiger Brokers fell more than 8% at one point, Baidu fell more than 1.9% at one point, Alibaba fell more than 1.8% at one point, Pinduoduo initially fell more than 2.3% before halving the decline, while Li Auto rose nearly 6.8% at one point, Miniso rose more than 5% at one point, Meituan ADR rose nearly 6% at one point, Xpeng rose more than 3.7% at one point, Trip.com rose more than 2.1% at one point, JD.com rose more than 2% at one point.
• In other key stocks: (1) Coca-Cola's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations due to significant price increases to offset sluggish demand, with the stock falling more than 4.1% before halving the decrease. (2) Donald Trump concept stocks rose, with Phunware rising more than 25.4% at one point, Trump Media & Technology Group rising more than 6.9% at one point. (3) McDonald's fell by about 7%, marking the largest decline since March 2020. Serious E. coli infection incidents occurred at numerous McDonald's locations in the US, resulting in 10 hospitalizations and 1 death.

【Updates before 22:00】

The Fed's rate cut expectations cooled down, with US stocks and bonds plunging overnight. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose for three consecutive days, surpassing 4.2% today to reach a three-month high.

US stocks opened lower today, with the Dow falling by 0.6%, the Nasdaq by 0.43%, and the S&P by 0.33%. Starbucks fell by about 2%, with poor performance in the third quarter report and the temporary suspension of fourth quarter guidance; McDonald's fell by about 6%, with serious E. coli infection incidents at multiple McDonald's locations in the US; Qualcomm fell by about 1%, as reports stated that Arm has proposed canceling Qualcomm's license to use Arm's intellectual property to design chips.

Donald Trump concept stocks rose, with Phunware rising by about 22%. Most of the Chinese concept stocks rose, Daqo New Energy rose by about 9%, New Oriental fell more than 5%.

Asia-Pacific stock markets were mixed, with the Seoul Composite Index in South Korea closing up 1.1%; the Nikkei 225 Index in Japan fell by 0.8%, and the Tokyo Metro's first day of listing surged over 40%, marking the largest IPO in six years for the Japanese stock market. European markets collectively declined, with the Eurozone STOXX50 Index falling by over 0.5%.

The current global bond market sell-off trend has not completely subsided, with US bond yields generally rising, and Japan's 40-year government bond yields once reaching the highest level in 16 years.

Spot gold rose above $2750 during the session, hitting another historical high; international oil prices fell.

• US stocks opened lower, with the Dow falling by 0.6%, the Nasdaq by 0.43%, and the S&P 500 by 0.33%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Daqo New Energy up by about 9%, while New Oriental fell by over 5%. Stocks related to Donald Trump's concepts rose, with Phunware up by about 22%.
• Asia-Pacific stock markets were mixed. The Seoul Composite Index in South Korea closed up 1.1%, the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.8%, and the Tokyo Metro's first day of listing surged over 40%, marking the largest IPO in six years for the Japanese stock market.
• European markets collectively declined. The Eurozone STOXX50 Index fell by over 0.5%.
• US bond yields rose. The 10-year US bond yield rose for three consecutive days, breaking above 4.2% today to reach a three-month high.
• The Japanese yen against the US dollar exchange rate fell to a near three-month low, currently reported at 153.
• Spot gold rose above $2750 during the day, hitting a new record high, now trading at $2732.51 per ounce; international oil prices fell.

[21:40 Update]

Boeing fell by about 3%, dragged down by problematic projects, Boeing Q3 incurred a huge loss of $6 billion, the largest since 2020.

McDonald's stock price opened down by 6.22%, marking the largest decline since March 2020.

Spot gold declined, now trading at $2732.51 per ounce.

【21:35 Update】

U.S. stocks opened lower, with the Dow down 0.6%, the Nasdaq down 0.43%, and the S&P down 0.33%.

Starbucks fell by about 2%, with poor performance in the third quarter and the postponement of fourth-quarter guidance; McDonald's fell by about 7%, with severe E. coli infections reported at numerous McDonald's locations in the U.S.; Qualcomm fell by about 1%, amid reports of Arm seeking to cancel Qualcomm's use of Arm's intellectual property for chip design; Coca-Cola fell by about 4%, following the company's announcement of third-quarter financial results.

Stocks related to Donald Trump rose, with Phunware up about 22%.

Most China concept stocks rose, with Daqo New Energy up about 9% and New Oriental falling over 5%, following the company's first-quarter financial report.

[Update at 21:11]

Spot silver fell more than 2% intraday, now trading at $34.14 per ounce.

[19:05 update]

Pre-market trading in US stocks, the three major index futures all fell. Most China concept stocks rose, Li Auto Inc. surged over 5%, while New Oriental dropped more than 2%.

European markets collectively declined, with the Eurozone STOXX50 index falling more than 0.5%.

Oil prices fell, with both Brent crude and WTI crude dropping by 2%.

The current yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.226%.

【17:44 Update】

The Japanese yen fell over 1% against the US dollar to 152.74.

【16:40 Update】

Donald Trump concept stocks in US pre-market trading continue to rise, with Phunware up over 22%, closing up over 38% overnight; Trump Media & Technology Group up over 3%, closing up nearly 10%.

【16:10 Update】

Starbucks fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading on Wall Street, with the company's third-quarter performance lacking, and it has temporarily postponed the release of fourth-quarter guidance.

McDonald's fell nearly 6% as multiple McDonald's locations in the United States experienced serious E. coli infection incidents.

Spirit Airlines surged nearly 20%. According to The Wall Street Journal, Spirit Airlines is in preliminary discussions to resume merger talks with Frontier.

Qualcomm fell more than 5%, reports that Arm has proposed to cancel Qualcomm's license to use Arm's intellectual property in chip design.

[15:45 Update]

US stock index futures are slightly lower, with Dow Jones futures down nearly 0.3%.

Major European stock indices opened slightly lower, with Euro Stoxx 50 Index down 0.41% at the opening, Germany's DAX Index down 0.3%, UK's FTSE 100 Index down 0.17%, and France's CAC 40 Index down 0.44%.

Mixed performance in Asia-Pacific stock markets, Seoul Composite Index in South Korea rose 1.1%; Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.8%, Tokyo Metro's first day of trading surged by 42%, marking the biggest IPO in six years for Japanese stocks.

Tokyo Metro's stock price surged by 47% intra-day, opening at 1630 Japanese yen, reaching as high as 1768 Japanese yen, well above the IPO price of 1200 Japanese yen, with a market cap surpassing 1 trillion Japanese yen at one point. It closed at 1739 Japanese yen, up 42% from the issue price.

US bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year variety maintaining at a high level of 4.23%.

Emerging market bonds continue to decline, with Indonesia and South Africa's bond yields rising.

Spot gold rose above $2750 during the session, hitting a new historical high. UBS Group stated that the bullish sentiment towards gold is strong, with the next target at $2900, any pullback will be temporary.

International oil prices edged lower.