According to the Securities Times APP, Dongxing Securities released research reports stating that in September, the total business volume of express delivery service companies nationwide reached 14.97 billion pieces, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, slightly lower than the 19.4% growth in August. By type, the business volume of same-city parcels in September increased by 15.3%, while the business volume of inter-city parcels increased by 18.8%. The intensity of price competition since the beginning of the year has slightly exceeded expectations, but it does not change the judgment that the price war is about to ease, especially after the industry enters the peak season in the fourth quarter, the demand for price over volume will weaken due to capacity constraints and policy constraints, which is more likely to lead to a relaxation of the price war. It is recommended to focus on the industry leaders ZTO Express-W (02057) and YTO Express Group (600233.SH).

The growth rate of business volume has slightly decreased, with YTO Express Group continuing to lead in growth rate.

In September, industry demand slightly increased, with express business volume growing compared to August, although the year-on-year growth rate of business volume has decreased slightly. Among the listed companies under the TONGDA system, YTO Express Group has made efforts to increase its market share, with its business volume growth rate continuing to lead in September, increasing market share by 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Both Shentong and Yunda increased their market shares by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The industry's business volume growth rate is trending downward, mainly due to the rapid increase in business volume base after the price war began last year. YTO Express Group's upward trend in business volume growth rate goes against the overall trend, reflecting YTO's strong demand for market share, possibly aiming to widen the gap with Yunda and Shentong, and also because YTO's business volume base was not high in the same period last year.

The bottom line of price competition is gradually becoming clear, and the single ticket revenue of listed companies shows a bottoming out trend.

In terms of prices, the single ticket prices in the industry in September remained basically flat compared to August, while the year-on-year decrease expanded to 12.5%. In late August, the State Post Bureau held a special meeting to regulate market order, requiring express delivery companies to resolutely prevent "zero-sum" vicious competition. We believe that the meeting has a relatively positive impact on easing the industry's price war. In terms of listed companies, in September, the year-on-year decreases in single ticket revenue for Shentong, Yunda, and YTO were 4.3%, 12.2%, and 6.8% respectively. Looking at a month-on-month basis, the single ticket revenue of the three TONGDA companies increased slightly.

Dongxing Securities believes that after entering the second half of the year, the single ticket revenue of the TONGDA system's listed companies is showing a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. Even though YTO has been intensifying efforts to compete for market share since August, the single ticket revenue of Shentong and Yunda has not continued to decline. This reflects that the bottom line of industry price competition is gradually becoming clear, with the possibility of single ticket revenue continuing to decline being slim. Based on this, the relaxation of industry price competition in the fourth quarter is more anticipated.

Risk Warning: Intensified industry price wars; rising labor costs; changes in policy, etc.