该行预期，基于中国股票的贝塔，内地市场将为成交量及港交所股价的主要推动力。同时，该行预期港交所股价恢复至市盈率中位数，对比过去两年的低出一个标准差，受刺激预测推动市场活动改善支持。该行认为，即使五天日均成交回落至2,020亿港元，仍显著高于今年以来平均的1,270亿港元及该行预期的第四季的1,410亿港元，意味若目前趋势维持，港交所股价有上升空间。According to the report, the trend during the quarter showed that market activity was slow until mid-September, and then accelerated rapidly after the announcement of stimulus measures in the Mainland.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report stating that it maintains the “increase in holdings” rating on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388), with a target price of HK$390. The bank said that thanks to the good fair value return and cost performance of externally managed investment funds, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit for the third quarter was HK$3.145 billion, higher than the bank's forecast of 3%.
According to the report, the trend during the quarter showed that market activity was slow until mid-September, and then accelerated rapidly after the announcement of stimulus measures in the Mainland. Overall quarterly revenue remained flat quarterly and in line with the forecast, but revenue from transaction and clearing fees fell slightly short of expectations and was offset by net investment income that exceeded expectations. Costs were well controlled during the quarter, and all project categories were reduced quarterly, with the exception of legal expenses which increased due to one-off factors in the second quarter.
The bank expects that, based on the beta of Chinese stocks, the mainland market will be the main driving force for trading volume and the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At the same time, the bank expects the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to return to the median price-earnings ratio, which is one standard deviation lower than the previous two years. Stimulus forecasts drive improved support for market activity. The bank believes that even if the five-day average daily transaction falls back to HK$202 billion, it is still significantly higher than the average of HK$127 billion since this year and the bank's forecast of HK$141 billion for the fourth quarter, which means that if the current trend continues, there is room for the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to rise.
