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A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301552)

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301552)

浏览河北克力汽车设备股份有限公司(SZSE:301552)的内在价值
Simply Wall St ·  2024/10/25 09:56

Key Insights

主要见解

  • Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment's estimated fair value is CN¥51.58 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of CN¥57.10 suggests Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • When compared to theindustry average discount of -483%, Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value
  • 河北科利汽车设备的估计公允价值为51.58人民币,基于2阶段自由现金流对股权
  • 目前57.10人民币的股价表明河北科利汽车设备可能接近公允价值交易
  • 与行业平均折扣-483%相比,河北科利汽车设备的竞争对手似乎在更高的溢价上交易

Does the October share price for Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301552) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

河北科利汽车设备股票的十月份股价反映了其真正价值吗?今天,我们将通过估计公司未来的现金流量并将其贴现到现值来估算股票的内在价值。我们将利用贴现现金流量(DCF)模型来实现这一目的。不要被术语吓到,背后的数学实际上非常简单。

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

我们要警告的是,有很多方法来对公司进行估值,就像DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优点和缺点。如果您想了解更多关于折现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St分析模型中详细阅读这个计算背后的推理。

The Model

模型

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用二阶段增长模型,就是考虑公司增长的两个阶段。在初始期间,公司可能具有更高的增长率,第二阶段通常被认为有稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流量。鉴于没有自由现金流的分析师预测可供我们使用,因此我们需要从公司上次报告的自由现金流(FCF)中推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流下降的公司将减缓下降速度,而自由现金流增长的公司将在此期间看到其增长率减缓。我们这样做是为了反映出增长趋势在早期的减速比后期更加明显。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

通常我们认为今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此这些未来的现金流的总和被贴现到今天的价值。

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由现金流(FCF)预测

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥131.2m CN¥153.8m CN¥173.7m CN¥190.9m CN¥205.8m CN¥218.8m CN¥230.3m CN¥240.8m CN¥250.5m CN¥259.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 23.44% Est @ 17.26% Est @ 12.94% Est @ 9.91% Est @ 7.79% Est @ 6.31% Est @ 5.27% Est @ 4.55% Est @ 4.04% Est @ 3.68%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3% CN¥121 CN¥131 CN¥137 CN¥139 CN¥138 CN¥136 CN¥132 CN¥127 CN¥122 CN¥117
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) 131.2百万元人民币 153.8百万元人民币 人民币173.7百万 人民币190.9百万 人民币205.8百万 人民币218.8百万 230.3百万人民币 240.8百万元人民币 250.5百万元人民币 人民币259.7百万
增长率估计来源 估计 @ 23.44% 估计 @ 17.26% 估计 @ 12.94% 预测值为9.91% 按7.79%计算的估计。 @6.31%的预测: 估值:5.27% 预计增长率为4.55%时 以4.04%的速度增长 预计3.68%
现值(人民币,百万)折现 @ 8.3% 121元人民币 131元人民币 CN¥137 人民币139 138元人民币 CN¥136 人民币132元 127人民币 人民币122元 人民币117元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.3b

("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF) = 人民币1.3b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.

现在我们需要计算终值,这包括这十年期之后的所有未来现金流。由于种种原因,我们使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在本例中,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)来估计未来增长。和10年期的“增长”期一样,我们将未来现金流贴现为今天的价值,使用的权益成本是8.3%。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥260m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.3%– 2.9%) = CN¥4.9b

终端价值(TV)= 自由现金流2034年 ×(1 + 2.9%)÷ (r - 2.9%)= 人民币260m × (1 + 2.9%)÷(8.3%– 2.9%)= 人民币4.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥4.9b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10= CN¥2.2b

终值现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + 8.3%)10= 人民币4.9b÷ (1 + 8.3%)10= 人民币2.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥3.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥57.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

总价值,即股本价值,是未来现金流的现值之和,本例中为人民币35亿。 最后一步是将股本价值除以流通股数量。 相对于当时的股价人民币57.1,公司估值大致合理。 计算中的任何假设对估值都有很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估算,而不是精确到每分钱。

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SZSE:301552 Discounted Cash Flow October 25th 2024
深交所:301552 折现现金流2024年10月25日

Important Assumptions

重要假设

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.095. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的输入是贴现率,当然也包括实际现金流。 投资的一部分是对公司未来表现的评估,因此请自行尝试计算并核对自己的假设。 DCF也没有考虑行业可能的周期性,或公司未来的资本需求,因此并未完全揭示公司潜在表现。 鉴于我们正在看河北科力汽车设备作为潜在股东,使用了权益成本作为贴现率,而不是资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC),后者考虑了债务。 在此计算中,我们使用了8.3%,这基于1.095的杠杆β计算。 β是股票波动性的度量,与整个市场相比。 我们的β是从全球可比公司的行业平均β中获得的,强加限制在0.8和2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。

Looking Ahead:

展望未来:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment, we've compiled three further factors you should further examine:

尽管重要,贴现现金流量计算理想情况下不应是您用于公司分析的唯一依据。 DCF模型并非完美的股票估值工具。 相反,DCF模型最好的用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。 例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。 对于河北克立汽车装备来说,我们已经编制了另外三个您应该进一步检查的因素:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
  1. 风险:例如,考虑到投资风险的永恒威胁。 我们已经确定了河北克立汽车装备的1个警示迹象,了解它应该是您投资过程的一部分。
  2. 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
  3. 其他环保型公司:担心环境问题,并认为消费者将越来越多地购买环保产品?浏览我们的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能没有想到的股票!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS:Simply Wall St应用程序每天为深交所上市的每只股票进行贴现现金流估值。如果您想查找其他股票的计算,请在此搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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